However you slice the data, the export numbers are down: commodity prices are falling as are export volumes, and manufactured exports are softening as are services. True, trade and current account deficits are narrower now than they were during the 2013 lows, but that could easily reverse as commodity prices rise or domestic demand picks up. For instance, a simple exercise of adjusting the oil price forecast to $68 per barrel by the end of the year from $62 in itself adds 0.2-0.3 per cent of GDP to the import bill. This could well happen with any other commodity, widening India's trade deficit in a matter of a few months.
Furthermore, as domestic demand recovers over the next few quarters, lifting imports along with it, India's trade deficit could start widening, unless exports pick up in tandem. The last time India was anywhere close to eight per cent GDP growth, the (non-oil-non-gold) import bill was 0.5 per cent of GDP, higher than it is now. In short, the recent narrowing of the trade and current account deficit is not on a firm footing. An uptick in global commodity prices and higher domestic growth could erode much of the gains in our external accounts. Thus improving export performance is important for keeping external deficits at manageable levels.
Cynics argue that this cannot be done. How can exports improve at a time when global growth is listless and exchange rate movements are largely beyond the control of policy makers? This column argues it is possible and the answer lies closer to home than most believe. But first, we need to understand why India's export growth is slowing.
One way to gauge this is by modelling India's exports against key drivers. Aside from the usual suspects such as world growth and the exchange rate, we focus on our preferred indicator of domestic economic bottlenecks - the huge stock of stalled investment projects.
As is well known by now, stalled investment projects have caused much damage over the last few years by locking resources both in the ground and at the banks. It encapsulates all that has gone wrong in the business environment.
Our research delivers some uncomfortable messages: since 2008, 50 per cent of the slowdown in export growth in India can be explained by domestic bottlenecks, and only the balance by sluggish global demand and the rupee. It's a reminder that our export performance is more in our hands than we believe.
There's plenty of anecdotal evidence to support our view, such as accounts of electricity shortages hampering export manufacturers. As over 60 per cent of Indian exporters are small-scale producers, they are unlikely to have access to their own power supply. Other infrastructure issues, such as poor rail, road and port connections also erode the competitiveness of the country's exporters. More importantly, India's low ranking in ease of doing business surveys signals the disadvantages Indian exporters face.
The outlook for exports in 2015 is not encouraging. Global growth remains lethargic and the pace at which bottlenecks are being removed is too slow.
However, if we continue to chip away at our bottlenecks, 2016 could bring better news for exports. So we have a choice: believe that an export revival is beyond our control and structural reforms are only possible in the "medium term" - or chip away whole-heartedly at domestic bottlenecks and make the economy more resilient. It's in our hands.
The writer is chief India economist, HSBC