Preparing for the flu

The dreaded bird flu, which struck the country in February, may have been controlled and contained in the Navapur and Jalgaon belts, but that does not guarantee that it will not make its appearance again. In fact, the chances of the pathogenic H5N1 virus being brought back by migratory birds during their fresh influx in the coming winter are even greater as the infection still exists in over a score of countries. The time to take preventive action through vaccination is, therefore, now. Unfortunately, no such move seems in the offing. Opinions differ on whether the available drugs (which act both as remedies and vaccines) should be used before or after the disease breaks out, but most countries threatened by bird flu have resorted to preventive vaccination, and are thus not taking any chances. Considering Indian conditions, where poultry is not confined to organised farms and bio-safety measures are almost impossible to adopt, prevention is almost certainly better than cure. China, in a more or less similar situation, has opted for 100 per cent compulsory vaccination of poultry birds.

It has now been conclusively established, and also officially recognised by global bodies like the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Organisation for Animal Health, that the H5N1 virus is carried over long distances and introduced into distant locations by migratory birds, but its further spread is largely through the poultry trade, legal and illegal. Secondly, while the first outbreak of the H5N1 virus in 2003 was on the East Asia-Australia flyway of migratory birds""and, thus, kept India safe""the latest one is on the East Africa-West Asia flyway, which passes through India. Navapur is very close to this pathway. This, even while heightening the danger of the re-emergence of the bird flu, provides a chance to keep the affliction under check through pre-emptive action in a narrow belt along this route, and thus spare the rest of the country.

In view of this, it would be worthwhile to heed the plea by the Poultry Federation of India (PFI) for the vaccination of all poultry around water bodies which attract migratory birds, so that even if any winged visitors bring the virus into India, they will not cause any bird mortality. That would also minimise the scope for the virus to mutate into a form that can be transmitted from one human to another, which in turn would cause an insurmountable pandemic. Luckily, India has built up some stock of the required vaccine. Should it be considered inadequate, supplies should be augmented now as it might become difficult to procure enough quantities if this menace assumes a virulent form in the winter. Indeed, the good news is that Indian scientists are also reported to be close to developing a vaccine that is deemed more effective (with a 90 per cent success rate) than existing drugs. The process of its finalisation and commercial production needs to be speeded up so that the country can secure itself against this scourge. Besides, there is also merit in the plea for adopting a "zoning" policy so that the entire country is not deemed flu-hit, should the virus reappear. As for poultry exports, although these account for less than 1 per cent of total production, they can be sustained from disease-free zones. But the government must act fast, because the winter is not far away.