Realism in Central Asia

Advantages and disadvantages to SCO membership

In the recently concluded meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, or SCO, at Ufa in Russia, the Central Asia-focused grouping agreed to begin the process to incorporate India as a full member. India has been an observer at SCO since 2005; but it was only last year a formal application for membership was submitted. This is being seen as a step by the People's Republic of China, which dominates the SCO, to end what had effectively been a blocking of India's entry. The commencement of Pakistan's accession was also announced. The SCO has become the primary way for Russia and China to co-operate in the Central Asian region. While its non-energy trade implications are minimal, it conducts regular counter-terror exercises - which some critics see as being directed equally at quelling internal political dissent in volatile Central Asian countries.

Ufa, 1,300 kilometres from Moscow, has historically been Russia's gateway to Asia. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, this was a gateway into Central Asia, as he had a series of bilateral meetings with regional leaders. In some cases, the joint statements promised stepped-up military engagement. For example, the joint statement with Kyrgyzstan said that joint special forces exercises would henceforth be conducted annually.

However, while in no way questioning the substantial value that might eventually accrue to India from enhanced engagement with Central Asia, it is necessary to inject a dose of realism into the discussion. The simple point is this: India cannot be a real player in Central Asia in the first place if there is no connectivity to the region. Mr Modi and his local counterparts made much of historical cultural and trade links. But those links were sustained by much-travelled road and caravan networks. For an India that no longer has access, a role is too much to expect. Thus a pre-requisite for greater co-operation with Central Asia is the opening of a road from the Iranian coast, which will allow India to once again embed itself in Central Asian networks.

The importance of SCO membership also should not be over-emphasised - and its possible disadvantages clearly understood. If bilateral engagement with any Central Asian country is in both parties' interest, it would happen anyway. This is, in fact, the recent experience. After all, Mr Modi signed a uranium supply deal with Kazakhstan that was planned and negotiated when India was not an SCO member. And as to disadvantages, there is a troubling question that must be asked: If China has let India into what it clearly thinks of as its neighbourhood association, the SCO, what argument can India use to keep China out of its equivalent, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, or SAARC?