Room for rebels?

Lessons from the fate that befell rebel BJP CMs

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s leadership may have been reluctant at all times to get rid of Vasundhara Raje as chief minister of Rajasthan, but it may not be an immaterial fact that she communicated to the party leadership in different ways that she enjoyed overwhelming support in the state legislature party. If so, it raises important questions about the thesis, widely accepted, that the party has centralised power in the hands of one or two people. If Ms Raje has cocked a snook at the party leadership, she won't be the first chief minister in her party to have done so. The case of B S Yeddyurappa in Karnataka stands out. Indeed Narendra Modi as chief minister was not without his detractors, but his electoral record allowed him to tell them where they got off. Similarly, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, in his third term as Madhya Pradesh chief minister, is said to have been sufficiently secure in his position to decline an invitation to join Mr Modi's Cabinet.

Before rushing to the opposite thesis, about multiple power bases, it is worth noting that BJP chief ministers who raised the flag of revolt bit the dust. Shankarsinh Vaghela left the party in Gujarat to float his own, got nowhere and eventually hitched his wagon to the Congress - without better results. Mr Yeddyurappa also floated his own party, relying on his strong base in Karnataka's powerful Lingayat community. But he did disastrously in state elections and decided to retrace his steps. Earlier, Balraj Madhok had launched his own party after being thrown out of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (the BJP is its successor party), but got nowhere. In other words, if Ms Raje had felt compelled to raise a flag of revolt, she may not have got very far on her own.

It is interesting that this should be the case when Congress rebels have done much better for themselves. The political careers of Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee and even Jagan Reddy are testimony to the fact that Congress votes go with individuals more readily than in the case of the BJP. As much was true in an earlier age, with Biju Patnaik and Charan Singh. The explanation for the difference might lie in the fact that the BJP is what has been called a cadre-based party, unlike the Congress, which is leader-driven. It may be more accurate to say that the BJP's support base subscribes to a certain brand of nationalism. Cadres are motivated by that common bond, and it is much easier to identify with the cause by sticking to the mother-party.

But that brings the argument full circle. If state-level leaders who have raised a flag of revolt against the party have not done well, why should the BJP's central leadership worry about whether or not Ms Raje enjoys majority support in the legislature party? The answer might lie in the calculation that a split ends with both the BJP and the rebel losing because votes get divided, as happened with Mr Yeddyurappa. That explained why the party was as keen to have him back as he was to return. Therefore, the way to get away from l'affaire Lalit Modi suggests itself: a rebellious exit by Ms Raje, followed by a return to the fold after a suitable time gap.