For a government that is entering its eighth year in office next week, last week’s state Assembly elections sent mixed signals. While the ruling Indian National Congress has reasons to worry about its long-term future, the coalition government of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by it has consolidated itself for the near term. Neither Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) nor the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) would want to part ways with the Congress party. With new battle lines being drawn in Uttar Pradesh, the UPA will be assured of support from the Samajwadi Party, if not the Bahujan Samaj Party, and a beleaguered Sharad Pawar is unlikely to break ranks in Maharashtra. A rapprochement with the AIADMK’s Jayalalithaa offers new options, even encouraging a split in the DMK, and smaller parties would be happy not to rock the boat till the next elections, given the return of “anti-incumbency” among voters.
In short, not only is there no immediate threat to UPA-II but it is reasonable to expect political stability in New Delhi till the next Lok Sabha elections in 2014. What happens in 2014 is a different issue. Next year, the focus will be on the next round of state Assembly elections, especially in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. Both national parties, the BJP and Congress, will have to burnish their credentials in these two states to position themselves for 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Addressing a business forum last week, BJP leader Arun Jaitley put forward the thesis that a two-coalition system, with the Left Front trying but not succeeding in forming a third front, had come to exist. If the Left Front is unable to revive itself by 2014 then the next Lok Sabha elections would be fought between two rival coalitions, one led by the Congress and the other by the BJP. The BJP appears to be divided between those who wish to destabilise the Manmohan Singh government now and seek an early election and those who wish to see the party’s senior leadership retire so that a younger leadership can take charge in time for the 2014 election.
In the near term, the UPA government has the opportunity to consolidate its position and focus on improving its image and performance. The Congress party is reportedly planning to organise a stock-taking and brainstorming retreat next month in Mount Abu. This is timely and necessary. Considering that the second year of UPA-II has been a virtual washout, with public focus on corruption and political debacles in key Congress states, the party has to get its act together, retrieve ground, retain alliance relationships and project a new agenda for the next three years, and beyond. The party needs the mature touch of wise political strategists and organisers instead of clever backroom tacticians and manipulators.
A turnaround strategy for the government will have to begin with the promised forward-looking reshuffle of the Union Council of Ministers and key government officials. The government does not need a group of ministers dedicated to briefing the media. It needs a credible message and a strategy to deal with pervasive public scepticism about political and policy communication.
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In the past year, the government’s agenda has been set by the Opposition and civil society activists. The government has either been in a reactive mode, with an assortment of oppositional forces setting the agenda, or repeated slogans from UPA-II and the national Common Minimum Programme.
It’s time for a makeover. UPA-II needs a new agenda of governance reform, development planning, national security and foreign policy. The agenda should be focused on the UPA’s guiding principle of “inclusive growth” — an idea that the entire world is bringing itself to accept as the key to politically sustainable economic growth.
There are two aspects to “inclusive growth”: the sustainability of the growth process and the strengthening of plural and secular politics. The first requires fiscal reform and consolidation, inflation control (mindful of the need for energy security), reform of public sector, efficient and transparent public-private partnerships, a more competitive and low-carbon economy, and external economic stability. The second aspect requires a bold articulation of the politics of inclusiveness, pluralism and secularism.
Governance reform has come to the fore. A clear articulation of initiatives taken – and yet to be taken – to reduce corruption and make government more transparent and accountable would help. With different political parties in government at the Centre and in states, greater political consultation and a spirit of “cooperative federalism” is the need of the hour.
Finally, a new bipartisan consensus on national security and foreign policy has to be reconstructed. Many issues pertaining to domestic policy may divide the political class in a democracy, but key issues of national security and foreign policy require greater convergence in thinking and cooperation in action — all the more so when India’s neighbourhood remains unstable and worrisome.
India, like all large democracies, is obsessed with itself. Indian politics tends to be navel gazing. So it is useful to remind the country’s political leadership that stabilising India’s growth process over the next two years is of the greatest importance for the nation’s future. India cannot take its growth surge of the past decade for granted. The country managed to survive the global financial crisis and economic slowdown and sustain reasonably high growth rates, thanks to wise management.
India cannot afford political destabilisation in the next two years at a time when doubts about global growth persist, China’s rise continues unabated and threats to national and regional security abound. With the season of politics over, the focus must return to governance so that the ship of Indian economy and polity can be steered through choppy waters and uncertain global weather.