This time, the issues are vastly different compared to 2009, when the RJD, the Congress and the LJP were wiped out by the Nitish Kumar wave. At that time, Kumar had wooed voters with his development, law-and-order and good-governance slogans. A political analyst says now, it's just like old times -caste, religion and egoistic agendas are more important than performance and development. And, political parties are short-listing candidates purely on the basis of their caste and social equations.
According to opinion polls, the BJP seems to be riding high on the anti-incumbency factor against the Congress at the Centre and the JD (U) in the state. In a way, the break-up with the JD (U) has acted in its favour. Moreover, the BJP has been successful in luring voters on the basis of its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
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To challenge the BJP's rise, the RJD-Congress-LJP alliance is betting on sympathy votes for Lalu Prasad, convicted in the fodder scam last year and currently out on bail. Prasad is leaving no stone unturned to revive his Muslim-Yadav equation. Meanwhile, the JD (U) is trying to lure many through its new-found love for secularism and demands of special status for Bihar. However, unhappy upper castes, rampant corruption and lack of a cadre could spoil Nitish Kumar's game plan.
Across the state, infighting is the biggest concern for all political parties. As the BJP lacks quality candidates for most seats, it has to bring leaders from outside, something that has fuelled strife. The RJD-Congress-LJP combine, too, has seen internal uproar, owing to which it is yet to finalise its seat-sharing formula. The party hit by infighting the hardest is the JD (U). The recent departure of Shivanand Tiwari and N K Singh from the Rajya Sabha has further alienated upper caste leaders within the party.
Let us consider the prospects of the big three:
The BJP
Since its defeat in 2004, the BJP's vote share is on the rise. In the 2010 Assembly elections, it was able to garner about 16 per cent votes, against 11 per cent in 2004. This time, too, the party expects a rise in its vote share. Party leaders say the break-up with the JD (U) has been a blessing in disguise. "I would be lying if I don't accept it has worked in our favour," senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi said a few days ago. "There is discontent against the government, largely because of the functioning of the chief minister. We are no longer part of his government and this has allowed us to point to its loopholes. Anti-incumbency will now work in our favour."
The split also allowed the BJP to garner support among upper castes, especially the powerful Brahmins, Bhumihars and Rajputs, and led to opportunities in constituencies where the BJP was considered weak, such as Darbhanga and Ara. And, the backward card played by Modi fetched him support from backward castes, especially from the Baniya community.
However, the lack of quality candidates is their biggest concern. "The party leadership has already denied tickets to sitting MLAs. This has shortened our pool. We are now evaluating candidates from outside the BJP, too," said a party leader. This is bound to anger those aspiring for seats from the party for long.
RJD-Congress-LJP
When RJD Chief Lalu Prasad was sentenced last year, many thought his political career was over. Only, it wasn't. The Muslims and the Yadavs rallied behind him and despite spending two months in a Ranchi jail, he returned to Patna like a vindicated king and declared he was a crusader against "communal forces". The Congress, despite the initial reservations of its Vice-President Rahul Gandhi, embraced him.
However, the road to victory is not as easy as it seems. Though the Yadavs see him as their leader, the BJP has been trying hard to bring many from this community under its fold. And, the JD (U) is trying to woo Muslim votes. Also, while Prasad wants at least 26 seats for his party, the Congress and the LJP are adamant on 10 seats each.
JD (U)
In June 2013, when Nitish Kumar severed his 17-year-old partnership with the BJP, he seemed confident and bold. Now, that doesn't seem to be the case. The Congress, which initially warmed up to him, has decided to join hands with the RJD. Rampant corruption and over-dependence on bureaucrats have further hit his prospects in the coming elections.
Though he has managed to draw extremely backward castes (EBCs) and women, it doesn't seem a sizable one. "There is not a shred of doubt about what Nitish Kumar did for women's empowerment; it is exemplary...This will be his legacy. But will that get him votes? I don't think so," said an analyst. "In India, women still vote for the party the men of the house ask them to." Also, EBC votes usually rely on the views of opinion-makers, primarily upper castes and a few intermediate ones. And, these sections aren't happy with Kumar. But the JD (U) has been able to make inroads into the Muslim youth voter base.
Though the BJP is seen as the front runner today, followed by the RJD-Congress-LJP combine, the elections are at least two and half months away. "Most voters in the state make up their minds on the polling day. Therefore, nobody should take them for granted. The history of independent India is full with examples of those who did and fell on their faces," says an analyst.