In the early 90s, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad came to power, buoyed by Mandal politics and an anti-Congress sentiment. Yet, by the end of the decade, he was one of the strongest supporters of the Congress.
The RJD regime was overthrown by the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine led by JD(U) leader and former chief minister Nitish Kumar, credited for the turnaround of an otherwise badly governed state. However, ties between the parties soured with the rise of Narendra Modi within the BJP. In June 2013, Kumar, said to be harbouring prime ministerial ambitions, broke away from the BJP. Modi's charisma, coupled with the support of upper castes, led to a huge win for the BJP and its allies, which secured 31 Lok Sabha seats in the state, decimating the RJD and JD(U).
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The debacle forced Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad to bury their differences and join hands to take on the BJP. The coalition of the RJD, the JD(U) and the Congress for the by-polls for 10 Assembly seats in the state surprised many.
Termed a curtain-raiser to next year's Assembly elections, these by-polls were expected to indicate the political churn in Bihar after the Lok Sabha elections. It was expected the BJP would sweep the by-polls, given these seats were its strongholds.
However, the JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance won six of the 10 seats, with the BJP winning only four (in the 2010 Assembly polls, the BJP had won six, the JD(U) one and the RJD the rest). Further, the BJP lost its strongholds such as Bhagalpur and Chapra. The National Democratic Alliance also saw substantial erosion in its vote share in these constituencies - from 45 per cent in the Lok Sabha polls to 37 per cent - , while the combined vote share of the RJD, the JD(U) and the Congress increased from 40 per cent to 44.9 percent.
Buoyed by the victory, Nitish Kumar stated the results signalled the direction in which political winds were blowing in the state. Voters had expressed "displeasure" at the Modi government, he said, adding his grand alliance would be broadened to include Left parties to check the BJP's "communal agenda".
From a hospital in Mumbai, Lalu Prasad tweeted, "I thank the people for making our alliance win. Voters across the country have rectified the mistakes made in Lok Sabha elections."
Analysts, however, feel otherwise. "These by-polls cannot be a performance evaluation of the Modi government, but it is a wake-up call for the state leadership, which is still in complacency mode," said one. BJP workers feel the party's state leaders made many blunders in the run-up to the by-polls. "The whole campaign was mismanaged right from the beginning. Outsiders were given preference at the cost of loyal party workers. Several newly elected MPs wanted tickets for their sons and, when denied, harmed the prospects of party candidates," said a party insider.
Several BJP workers feel taking the support of upper castes, particularly the Brahmins and Bhumihars, for granted cost the party dear. "The most important reason of our poor performance is the complete disregard for forward castes in the party. It alienated our most loyal voters," said a party worker. The BJP failed to win the support of the upper caste-dominant Jale, Mohiuddinnagar and Bhagalpur seats, a departure from 2010. In Banka, it managed to win by only 700-800 votes. The by-poll results led to party critics questioning the leadership of senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi, expected to be the BJP's chief ministerial candidate in the Assembly elections next year.
The by-elections also signalled the return of Lalu Prasad as a major force in the state (for all practical purposes, Nitish Kumar is second in command in the coalition). His political acumen intact, Prasad managed to bring together a political alliance to counter the rise of the BJP, earlier thought impossible. Congress detractors claim the results have shown if the party is to see any progress in the state, it has to piggyback on Prasad.
The outcome of the by-polls has raised clamour in the BJP to revisit its strategy for the next year's Assembly elections. Whether the party learns from its mistakes remains to be seen.
And, all might not be smooth for the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine. If it decides to fight the Assembly elections as a single entity, choosing a leader acceptable to all sides will be its biggest challenge.