Certainly, the Congress, which appeared resurgent a few short months ago, is now on the back foot. It faces the possible loss of power in two of the few remaining large states it rules - Kerala and Assam - when the election results there are declared later this month. In neither Tamil Nadu nor West Bengal is it leading an alliance, and in neither states is the alliance of which it is part considered to be the favourite.
Meanwhile, the fresh allegations of United Progressive Alliance-era corruption - this time even more damaging, since questions are being raised not about non-Congress ministers but the party leadership itself - have forced it on the defensive. Indeed, this seems to be part of a well-thought-out strategy by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). After all, the leadership of the Congress is under investigation not just at the Centre - several prominent state leaders are feeling the pressure, too. Ashok Chavan, the former Maharashtra chief minister, is to be prosecuted in a case regarding the Adarsh Housing Society scandal. Former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda has had a First Information Report registered against him in a matter that concerns the awarding of a plot of land to the Associated Journals Limited, a Congress-linked trust. And the Enforcement Directorate is going after Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh in a disproportionate assets case. Some other Congress satraps are also facing similar heat. Certainly, many of these leaders have laid themselves open to such attacks through their past behaviour. But it is also clear that the BJP has seized the political initiative by once again making corruption the topic of discussion - an issue on which the Congress has little to defend itself with.
For the BJP, this is in fact also a high-risk strategy. It could be argued that the BJP needs to keep the Congress from becoming a coherent national challenger once again, and keeping it focused on corruption investigations defangs its threat. But a "Congress-mukt Bharat" - the Congress-free India that the prime minister and the BJP president keep promising - might end up being as dangerous for the BJP as anything else. The collapse of the Congress in Delhi is what helped the Aam Aadmi Party sweep the Assembly elections there. The BJP will have to walk a fine line to ensure this dynamic is not repeated elsewhere. Meanwhile the Congress needs to respond to such allegations with more force and finesse than just by inarticulately blockading Parliament.