Shielding farm sector from climate change

With the Glasgow summit on climate change (COP26) having failed to inspire confidence in slowing, let alone halting, the process of climate change in the near future, the need for effective strategies to safeguard agriculture from its ill-effects has become all the more imperative. Thankfully, India is unlikely to be found entirely wanting in this respect. The search for technologies to make farming climate-resilient began in India nearly a decade ago with the launching of the countrywide project on National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). It has basically three objectives: Identify vulnerable areas; assess the potential impact of temperature rise on crop farming, livestock, and fisheries; and evolve crop varieties and agronomic practices adaptable to the emerging weather patterns.

The payoff of this move is reflected in an unabated uptrend in farm output despite escalation in global warming-driven vagaries of weather, particularly the surge in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Almost all agricultural activities — such as crop farming, horticulture, livestock rearing, and fisheries — have continued to scale new highs, regardless of wide fluctuations in monsoon rain and increase in the frequency of weather-induced natural disasters.

How precisely would the likely changes in climate affect the farm sector? Nothing can be said about it with absolute certainty. The findings of various studies carried out by national and global bodies and the projections made by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) present a mixed and, in some respects, even a confusing picture. Indications, broadly, are that monsoon rain, which has so far been declining, even if marginally, might tend to increase as a consequence of heat-induced acceleration in the hydrological cycle. The incidence of severe and protracted dry spells, interspersed with bouts of heavy downpour, might also look up.
 

According to the vulnerability assessment done by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), the overall productivity of paddy might dip by up to 2.5 per cent between 2050 and 2080. Irrigated paddy might witness up to a 7 per cent yield loss by 2050 and 10 per cent by 2080. The output of wheat is forecast to dwindle by 6 to 25 per cent and that of maize by 18 to 23 per cent by the end of this century. But chickpea (gram or chana) might benefit from the emerging climate, resulting in a yield spike of anywhere between 23 and 54 per cent.

The real worry is about the projected drop in farm income. The government’s Economic Survey for 2018 reckons that every one degree Celsius rise in temperature could reduce agricultural income by 6.2 per cent in kharif and 6 per cent in the rabi season in non-irrigated areas.

Many signs of climate change are already showing up. The weather data for over 100 years, maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), reveals that 12 of the 15 warmest years have occurred between 2006 and 2020. The previous two decades (2001-10 and 2011-20) have been the hottest on record. The year 2020 was, in fact, the eighth warmest year since 1901. In the case of rainfall, 13 of the 22 years of this century have witnessed weak monsoons. Prolonged drought (lasting for two or more years), rare in the distant past, has also begun to occur of late. The latest such spell was from 2016 to 2018. This year’s monsoon, too, had a weird run. The months of July and August, supposed to be the rainiest period, recorded highly deficient precipitation while the month of September, the withdrawal phase of the monsoon, received unusually high rainfall.

Such climatic aberrations, according to ICAR officials, would affect agriculture directly by reducing water availability and restraining crop yields and indirectly through variations in the incidence of pests and pathogens (crop diseases). “Changes in the intensity, frequency, and seasonality of climate patterns, extreme weather events, glacier melting, the rise in sea levels, ocean acidification, rainfall pattern and river flows are likely to impact the dairy and fisheries sectors as well,” maintains ICAR Deputy Director-General S K Chaudhari. As a pre-emptive move, a large number of water-harvesting structures has been created under the NICRA project to facilitate crop irrigation at critical stages of plant growth. These have resulted in yield gains of up to 85 per cent in some low-rainfall areas. Situation-specific advanced technologies for imparting climate-resilience to farming have also been evolved and successfully transferred to farmers in 151 climatically vulnerable districts. Several climate-resistant crop varieties have been developed and more are underway. More importantly, contingency plans to cope with climate anomalies have been drawn up for as many as 650 districts.

Thus, while farm scientists are doing their best to evolve ways and means to confront climate change head on, the success of their efforts relies on the effective implementation of these techniques in the field. The onus of ensuring that is on state governments.

surinder.sud@gmail.com