Shortage of transparency

Govt, companies must end opacity on vaccine supplies

As the tide of the terrible second Covid-19 wave slowly recedes and India braces itself for a possible third wave, the biggest irony is the snail’s pace at which the vaccine programme is progressing owing to serious supply bottlenecks. This much was clear from the change abruptly imposed four months into the vaccination drive that extended the intervals between two jabs of Covishield, which accounts for the bulk of the vaccines administered, from six to eight weeks to 12 to 16 weeks. This is the second time the interval was tweaked; the first, early in the programme, was from 30 days to six-eight weeks. The explanation for this was a “scientific process” ostensibly based on consultations with the World Health Organization even as the UK reduced the interval to deal with the virus variant that was sweeping India.

Experience around the country suggests that the change was driven by serious shortfalls. At the same time, confusing statements and claims from the government and manufacturers offer little enlightenment on actual availability. To touch the target of fully vaccinating 300 million people by June, the government needed a pipeline of 600 million doses (for two jabs each). Its order book to date suggests a huge shortfall. It initially ordered — that too only in January — 21 million vaccines from Serum Institute of India, makers of Covishield, and a further 110 million doses in mid-March when infections started climbing, and it advanced a grant to the company to convert production lines to make more vaccines. But Adar Poonawalla told the Financial Times that the shortages were expected to continue through July, when production is expected to increase from 60-70 million doses a month to 100 million doses.

Bharat Biotech, makers of Covaxin, the other major supplier, has stated that it has supplied 24 million doses to the government till May 20 and the Centre told the Supreme Court Covaxin production was expected to touch 55 million doses a month by July. This welter of confusing numbers does not disguise the severe shortage. India has vaccinated 200 million people in five months, just 40 million of whom have had two jabs. Spokespersons for the NITI Aayog and health ministry indicated that the country would have 2 billion doses of the vaccine from eight different sources, including three foreign vaccines, by December. That is a long time to wait to achieve a critical mass. Several states have stalled the vaccine for 18-44-year-olds — the population most at risk because it is more mobile — to concentrate on second jabs for the 45+ group, while others have temporarily closed down centres and hospitals for lack of vaccines.

The government’s response has been to place information in the media to the effect that the shortage is not as bad as it is made out to be or to accuse states of wasting vaccines. Neither approach is helpful for the millions of Indians who have been trying to get vaccinated for weeks. The division of vaccine supplies among the Centre, states, and private hospitals is only confusing matters. Instead of prevaricating, the government should publish a dashboard that tells its citizenry exactly which company is producing how many doses a month, where it’s going, and when supply is expected to improve so that Indians can plan their own vaccine schedules without extreme anxiety.