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Congress' poll promises face questions of credibility

The Congress party, the main component of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) that has been in power for 10 years, has released its manifesto for the 2014 elections. While there is much in it that is welcome, it gives rise to many questions. First of all: while nobody expects a poll-bound party to say its government has been a disappointment, the manifesto largely fails to acknowledge the variety of ways in which the UPA fell short of many voters' expectations. A frank assessment of its failures and how it would overcome them if an additional five years were granted to it by the electorate would seem to have been an essential part of the manifesto. Sadly, there was no such assessment. Thus, the manifesto does little to address the ruling party's credibility deficit.

That credibility deficit becomes a problem when the scale of the promises' ambition is properly understood. The Congress says it will vastly extend the scope of its rights-based welfarism. There will be, it says, a right to health; to housing; to pensions and social security; to humane working conditions; and a right to entrepreneurship. That last, in truth, makes very little sense even theoretically. But, otherwise, there is nothing in this list of objectives that is worth objecting to as a goal. Only one real question exists: how will it be paid for? On this, sadly, the manifesto is completely silent with regard to specifics. This, again, undermines the promises' credibility - especially since the manifesto also pledges to reach a fiscal deficit target of three per cent of gross domestic product by 2016-17 and to remain below that level "always".

The manifesto also says that over $1 trillion, or approximately Rs 60 lakh crore, will be spent on India's infrastructure over the next decade. It is unclear whether this is public money that is being discussed. Previous Budgets and Plan documents have also made commitments of this scale - but in terms of total money spent, and over a shorter time horizon. The Planning Commission has admitted that its infrastructure target for the Five-Year Plan ending in 2017 will not be met. If so, more details of this $1-trillion pledge should have been supplied.

At one point, the manifesto says that speedily passing the goods and services tax (GST) will raise resources from which expenditure on health and infrastructure could be increased. There is also the very valuable insistence that user charges should largely supplant many consumer subsidies, which would free up other financial resources. But the fact is the promise to implement the GST was in the party's last manifesto also, and it didn't happen. That may not be entirely the Centre's fault. But the absence of an explanation of how roadblocks from states like Gujarat could be overcome in the next five years in order to implement the GST impacts the promise's credibility. Finally, even if the GST becomes a reality, and some subsidies are cut, it is necessary for the Congress to "show its work", as it were - what are the numbers underlying its claims? Will enough be raised? This will enable independent evaluation and fact-checking of its promises. A party facing a credibility gap needs to do far more to recover ground.