The results of the Gujarat polls are still a little while away, but one outcome can be safely predicted. The winner will not be the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), although it will form the next government in all likelihood. No, this is not a typo, nor have I taken leave of my senses. The state Assembly election is, in effect, a referendum on its chief minister of the last decade, Narendra Modi, that he is most likely to win. The usual disclaimer to such statements is “barring unforeseen events”, but in this fortnight of elections, no such occurrences seem to be looming on the horizon.
The claim that this is a referendum is supported by two extremely reliable sources. The first is Modi himself. He said in a meeting in Veraval on December 1 that this contest is between the Congress and him, not the BJP. Nobody has since challenged this. The other source is where I derive many insights from — the local vegetable market. That same day, I heard many people say all credit, for what they obviously think is Gujarat’s currently enviable position, belonged solely to Modi. Some said they were not keen to participate in the election. They would, however, not only vote for Modi, but try to persuade others to do so as well.
The earlier convincing victory of the incumbent BJP government in 2007 caught only media commentators by surprise, but the electorate had long foretold it. While analysing it in these pages, I had listed the general feeling of well-being on all economic and infrastructure indicators, an image of effective governance prevailing not only in the state, but among knowledgeable outsiders as well, and fading memories of the 2002 carnage as factors responsible for this performance. In those circumstances, I wrote, “a ratcheting up (down?) of the campaign was waiting to happen and it did with the maut ke saudagar epithet of the Congress president… [T]his was [not] the kiss of death for the Congress campaign, because it was already moribund, but it gave Mr Modi the opportunity to up the ante, which he grabbed gleefully”*.
In the five years since, these very causes have given the Gujarati voter even more comfort. The Congress leadership now dare not use strong rhetoric, in case it backfires even worse this time. It has taken all too feebly to challenge the state’s claims to various desirable developments through a high-profile print, electronic and web blitz. The vocal media pundits have contributed, too, with exercises that appear all too laboured — to show that things are not all that rosy in Gujarat and, at any rate, some other states have done better or just as well. The electorate is obviously not buying much of any of these.
Modi anticipated most of these factors. Long before the Congress woke up to the impending election, the chief minister criss-crossed the state indefatigably through numerous yatras. For nearly a year now, he has played up the record of achievement. The attempt to assuage hurt Muslim sentiments through his sadbhavana fasts was only a sideshow. The main object was always to showcase what has happened in Gujarat in the last decade. And he has been none too subtle or polite in distributing credit: the main architect is himself (not so-strangely addressed in the third person, as in “Modi has done…”).
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Thus, there are no new issues or battles to fight this time around. This inevitability has reduced the 2012 election to a one-issue contest: Modi himself. The parties have gone through the rituals of manifestoes and rallies and speeches, but that does not alter the fact that this is essentially a referendum masquerading as an election, where people have already made up their mind for or against. In effect, Gujarat is being asked whether it approves of Modi, not necessarily his politics or programmes, but the person and his leadership.
And who better to take charge of the campaign for the affirmation than the subject himself? Most BJP leaders have registered their presence in the state, but they may as well have spared themselves the trouble. Not one to be even remotely accused of complacency, Modi has seen to it that his self-designed larger-than-life persona is projected in a fitting manner. Through the technological wizardry of three-dimensional holograms, he can virtually address many meetings – 52 at the last count – simultaneously. Even as the Congress national leadership makes pro-forma appearances in the state, the reach of the Gandhi mother and son, the prime minister and his ministerial colleagues is restricted to a few rallies a day of their two- or three-day visit. They use the BJP as the proxy to attack Modi, but he never lets his audience forget who their real target is.
The fly in the ointment with such “beauty contests” is that they can backfire. Charles de Gaulle subjected himself to a referendum in 1969 after the 1968 student uprising, only to face the ignominy of retiring to his seaside estate. Closer home, the post-Emergency election in 1977 turned a presumed victory for Indira Gandhi into a nightmare of retreat, albeit temporary. In both these cases, loud rumblings of dissent were heard well before the ballot, so the outcome was not a surprise for anyone, except the incumbents. That does not seem to be happening now.
A referendum is truly won only when an absolute majority accords the approval. Will Modi cross that Rubicon? The various pre-election polls show stratospheric approval ratings for him, but only one or two show the vote share to cross the 50 per cent mark. A somewhat smaller vote share would also ensure a handsome majority in our first-past-the-post electoral system. The BJP had 120 +/- seats in a house of 182 with just under 49 per cent of the vote in both 2002 and 2007. The only time Gujarat gave a bigger mandate was in 1985, when the Congress under Madhavsinh Solanki took 55 per cent of votes and 149 seats. No wonder Modi now has set his eyes on 150.
Is Modi an original in rising above his party? That is the subject of the second part of this series, which will appear on Wednesday.
* The article “Can we learn anything from Gujarat 2007?” appeared on December 26, 2007
The writer taught at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, and helped set up the Institute of Rural Management, Anand