As the monsoon crosses its mid-way mark, two of the season’s four months (June to September) are over, the prospect of this year’s south-west monsoon being better than last year’s have gone up, despite last month’s weak performance. After a lull, the monsoon has seen a spectacular resurgence in the past week or so, with 38 per cent excess rainfall registered in one week. Heavy rains in most parts of the country in the last 10 days have already reduced the annual deficit from a worrisome 16 per cent at June-end, and equally discomforting 14 per cent even till July 21, to a mere 3 per cent by the beginning of August. If the weather office’s forecast of copious rainfall in the rest of the season holds true, even this shortfall may be fully made up and the rainfall numbers may turn positive. A significant reassuring factor on this front is the dissipation of the dreaded El Nino (warming up of the Pacific Ocean), which often weakens the monsoon, and the emergence, in its place, of La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which invariably bolsters the monsoon. Luckily, most global weather models project La Nina to endure at least till the end of the current monsoon season. It is, therefore, possible that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) may prove right this time with its optimistic forecast of 102 per cent (± 4 per cent) of the long-period average.
The belated arrival of the monsoon and low rainfall in most parts, barring south peninsula, before the recent revival of the monsoon, had not affected the kharif sowing adversely. Crop planting had gone on normally, thanks largely to a few spells of good and well-spaced rainfall which kept the soil adequately moist to allow seeding and sustain the emerging seedlings. However, the real worry, right from the beginning of the monsoon season, had been regarding the replenishment of water reservoirs, which had been drawn down heavily in the wake of last year’s drought. Adequate restocking of dams is vital not only for irrigating the crops in the post-monsoon period and in the subsequent rabi season, but also, importantly, for the generation of hydel power which is necessary even for non-agricultural economic activities, including manufacturing. However, the concern on that count has also waned considerably as the deficiency in the total water stock of the major 81 reservoirs, which had worsened to nearly 35 per cent by the third week of July, has since improved and was below 19 per cent at the end of July. More showers in August and September would, hopefully, improve the situation further, contributing to improved performance of both the agriculture and power sectors. However, while all this sounds reassuring, one should keep one’s fingers crossed and continue to pray to the rain gods like so many policy-makers, including, as we now know, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, do!