When the BJP won an absolute majority in 2014 by securing only 31 per cent of the popular vote, it was easy to arithmetically establish that a united front of parties opposing it could turn the tables. But the ability of parties opposing the BJP to come together in a credible way so as to win the confidence of the electorate was discounted, as also these parties’ ability to transfer their votes among themselves. What these parties have done is proving what they can do by actually doing it. Things were greatly helped for the front by being able to project a credible leader like Nitish Kumar with a development record.
Mr Modi came to power on a development platform. But two issues have put a question mark over that agenda. The prospects of the National Democratic Alliance improving its arithmetic in the Rajya Sabha have receded, not just with the Bihar setback but also with little chance of winning fresh support in the round of Assembly elections due next year in which powerful regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee and J Jayalalithaa will be protecting their turf. Hence a whole lot of legislation from the GST bill onwards, which would have enabled development, stands to go out of the window. The bills can still go through if Mr Modi builds bridges with the Congress and others in the Opposition; but his image is hardly that of a statesman-like consensus-builder and more like that of a powerful personality who dazzles the electorate and demolishes all obstacles in the way.
More From This Section
The Bihar debacle has had another effect which probably means even more for the entire country. There is a revolt against the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo within the larger Sangh Parivar which can only weaken Mr Modi vis-à-vis the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. With the development agenda almost gone, the only agenda that an emasculated Mr Modi will be left with is the current version of the Hindutva agenda marked by the anti-beef agitation directed against Muslims and engineered communal tension across the country from Karnataka to Uttar Pradesh.
As communal tension increased in the run-up to the Bihar elections, some felt that things were running according to the classical Modi script — create a communally charged atmosphere to win an election and then after the election resume the development agenda. But now, not only is there little by way of a development agenda left, the government’s role in implementing the Hindutva agenda will be more directly driven by the RSS — which does not care for election results. Or else, why would Mohan Bhagwat queer the pitch for the BJP right in the heat of the election campaign, by questioning the future of the reservation system?
We are thus faced with a remarkable contradiction. The world’s largest democracy, created by the nobility of Gandhi and the liberalism of Nehru, founded on the open-mindedness of the Hindu way of discursive thought, was threatened by crude semi-literate religious fundamentalism, brought on by the BJP coming to power with a clear majority. So now that the BJP has been electorally humbled, the openness and tolerance should be returning. But the new fear is that intolerant agenda will continue, hounding Indians from minority communities until they agree to be second-class citizens, as its primary drivers do not care for temporary electoral setbacks.
The other, longer-term apprehension over the future is that the government of the many in Bihar will make a mess of its mandate. Disparate coalitions have never delivered in India. If that happens then the electorate will again bring the BJP back to power the way it had done after being exasperated by the misrule of the Congress. Thus the repetitive cycle will continue, the people rescuing the country from one kind of misrule and setting it back on course, to be again called upon to rescue the country again from another kind of misrule.
Ever since China forged ahead economically, the central issue was the incorrect economic policies that prevented India from ridding itself of poverty. Then, over the last decade, the country achieved unprecedented growth. But misrule came in the way and derailed that growth. The BJP came to power promising to restore rapid growth. Right now there is neither the feeling of rising economic well-being, nor a hope for the long life of India’s cherished openness.