Subir Roy: Karnataka's political charade goes on

VALUE FOR MONEY

Karnataka has just been blessed with its third chief minister in three and a half years. This makes it the odd man out among the southern states, which are known for both political stability and better governance. The state of governance in Karnataka is best symbolised by the condition of the roads of its showpiece capital Bangalore.

A new chief minister put in power by the same fractured assembly means yet another charade is beginning even as one has just ended. To guess what is in store for the state, let's recall what it has been through in the last six weeks. As the day drew near for the switching of chief ministership between the coalition partners Janata Dal (Secular) and the BJP, according to their agreement, JD(S) leader Deve Gowda found any number of reasons to renege on the deal.

A miffed BJP withdrew support, leading to the imposition of President's rule. Finding that life was uncomfortable out in the cold, the two groups patched up and paraded their strength before the governor. But just when the restoration of popular rule was imminent, Deve Gowda seemed ready to upset things by setting 12 conditions for the BJP to fulfil so as to receive his party's support. In between the former prime minister, whose ability to plumb the depths of low politics seems limitless, had written to the governor not to install the BJP in power and then withdrawn his objection!

The new farce and government have begun right on cue on Monday with the JD(S) ministers not taking oath along with their BJP counterparts on the grounds that the party has to first sign the 12-point memorandum of understanding outlined by Deve Gowda earlier. How long such a government can last is anybody's guess.

Even aside of the petty feuding, there are several deeper reasons why the new government will not last long. First, an extensive delimitation of constituencies, set to take place next year, is likely to take away the safe constituencies of several important politicians. So virtually anyone who is someone wants the polls (that is dismissal of the new government) before the new constituency boundaries set in so that she/he can seek to win another election under the old regime.

Plus, electronic voter lists are also set to kick in from next year, when rigging the polls will get more difficult "" so another reason to have another round of elections before the rules change. Mindful of all this, Deve Gowda made automatic dissolution of the coalition if parliamentary elections are scheduled one of his 12 demands. Expectedly, the popular mood in the state is one of cynicism. Nobody, least of all those who will be manning it, expects the new government to remain in power for more than a few months. They are seen to be eager to form a government only to be able to distribute a few more favours and enrich themselves a little more.

In fact, the first major test for the new government will come on Saturday when the assembly speaker takes up for consideration a plea that 39 JD(S) MLAs who withdrew support from the earlier Congress-led Dharam Singh government be disqualified as they did not follow due process. Speaker Krishna is a former close ally of Deve Gowda.

So the big question is why the Centre agreed to such a new government being formed instead of dissolving the assembly and calling for fresh elections. That would have spared the state some more misrule. The Centre would have been legally within its rights to do so as despite having the numbers, the chances of the coalition delivering a stable and functioning government for any length of time were remote. The governor had in his report to the Centre reportedly adduced hard evidence of infighting between the partners.

One theory is the that Congress at the Centre already has an overload of problems and does not want to create more trouble for itself by being accused of partisan action in Karnataka. Another theory is that the Congress leaders in Delhi want the JD(S)-BJP to make more of a mess in the state and eventually fall to its own contradictions, thus making it easier for the Congress to win the polls thereafter. But one opinion in the state holds that the Congress would have even now swept the polls with Deve Gowda losing all support in the Mysore region and former deputy chief minister Siddaramaiah, now with the Congress, bringing with him a solid chunk of backward caste votes.

The Congress, wilfully or by default, has done the people of Karnataka a major disservice by allowing the present political charade to continue. The state has already started paying a price for mis-governance. Tamil Nadu is now the first choice for significant investment in IT and BPO-KPO, not to speak of large-scale manufacturing. Andhra Pradesh, despite the departure of Chandrababu Naidu, remains strong in policy-led initiatives to secure investment in cutting-edge areas.

Karnataka's policy deficit is highlighted by the mess it has made on two fronts. One is the expressway to the new Bangalore international airport. The airport will be ready by August next year but the road will not be, courtesy court cases filed by landowners with political clout who want the alignment of the road to their liking. The other is Bangalore Development Authority. During S M Krishna's rule, it became a celebrated national success, ran a surplus and gave the middle class 60,000 plots to build homes. Since May 2004, when the shadow of Deve Gowda has hung over the state government, the BDA has not sold a single plot! But the charade continues, courtesy the state's ruling dispensation and the acquiescence of the Congress at the Centre.

subir.roy@bsmail.in