| This was wide open in the immediate aftermath of the parliamentary elections when a wideranging alliance was cobbled together with leftists on the one hand and the likes of Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan, on the other. Could any good come out of such a bunch, it could legitimately be asked. And further, how long could such a bunch hold together? |
| As it happens, the bunch is doing quite nicely and it is the main opposition, the BJP, that is down in the dumps. Securing the exit of Shibu Soren, whipping up a controversy over Veer Savarkar, obstructing Parliament, and making Uma Bharti wave the flag all over the country have not done the BJP any good. |
| The disharmony at the higher echelons of the BJP, which the electoral reverse has showed up, rather than the reverse itself, is what is more damaging to the party's image. The second rung of leaders, who were meant to take over from the Vajpayee-Advani duo, have all been shown up to be puny and, more damaging to themselves, deeply suspicious of each other. |
| L K Advani, who had virtually given the floor over to this bunch, has had to come back and reunite and rejuvenate the party. He will certainly reunite the BJP parivar but his writ may not run to the entire Sangh Parivar. |
| There is a fairly deep and clear ideological cleavage within the Sangh Parivar between those who feel that the misfortunes of the BJP have resulted from its jettisoning of the hard Hindutva line and those who believe that the Sangh must embrace to conquer. |
| Salvation, of course, lies in neither position. Large parties come to power when the entire middle ground of the polity moves in their direction of the political spectrum. This happened when Advani's rath yatra in October 1990 led to the demolition of the Babri Masjid in December 1992. The Sangh Parivar has a ready menu of more mosques to demolish but the question is if the same formula will work again. |
| The decline of the BJP, both electorally and in terms of the self-esteem of those who seek to lead it in the future, is good for the country right now because it gives greater stability to the Congress-led regime at a critical economic juncture. The Indian economy is in all probability at an inflection point. |
| Likely, it is moving to a changed and higher trend rate of growth. After the initiation of economic reforms, the first trend change came during the mid-nineties, when four years (1993""97) averaged a 7 per cent growth. Then there was a trend change downward, particularly during 2000""03. Last year (2003-04) again saw a revival of growth but it was typically a good monsoon, after a bad one, driving up growth. |
| This year can turn out to be significantly different. Despite an inadequate monsoon threatening to result in near zero agricultural growth, the year will likely end with a 6 per cent plus growth. Some like Merrill Lynch are even predicting a 7 per cent growth! |
| The likely robust growth will be driven by an 8 per cent growth in manufacturing and commensurate services growth. This is supported by exceptional corporate performance and booming exports. Further, India is emerging as an attractive choice for outsourcing of not just IT services but a range of business processes and, most lately, manufacturing. |
| At a juncture when things are going well, you don't need a revolutionary to change things drastically but sensible people who will keep doing sensible things. The Singh""Chidambaram""Ahluwalia trio currently running the economic show is widely acknowledged as the country's economic A team. |
| All that they need is a steady political environment in which to keep executing efficiently what is doable. The latest electoral results raise the comfort level of the political elements of the ruling alliance and make it easier for them to let the country's economic managers function without undue interference. |
| The Congress's advantage is that it travels with little ideological baggage. It thrives when it is in power and is bewildered when it is not. It returns to power because of the misgovernance of others, which prompts the disadvantaged, be they the poor or the minorities, to ring for change. And it is booted out when the same sections are disgusted with its misrule. |
| In this positive scenario of good economic managers in place and a clear mandate for the ruling political elements, the wild card is the leftists. Only they seem able to queer the pitch, spoil the party from within. |
| Conventional opinion is worried that they will remain a perpetual spanner in the works, stalling the pace of reforms""on which incidentally there are no serious differences between the Congress and the BJP""and maybe take away a half or a full percentage point in growth. |
| But this is not the full picture. The leftists are indeed a drag when it comes to some high-profile items on the reform agenda like disinvestment and foreign direct investment. But the unhighlighted story is that a lot of good work can be done without displeasing the leftists. Two simple examples, one economic and one political, will suffice. |
| Public sector units will run better if they are not left headless and succession is announced six months before the incumbent's term expires. The finance ministry can begin at home with the banks. |
| On the political front, the chief election commissioner has written to the Prime Minister recommending changes in electoral laws so that those with criminal charges or conviction cannot contest elections. What is happening on this? |
| The bottom line is, the leftists are indeed a pain but the reformers can begin by living up to their own images. |
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