Sunil Jain: What slowdown?

Industrial and other growth rates may have come down, consumer credit may have fallen dramatically, but the country's confidence levels, both political and economic, appear to be touching new highs. The NCAER's Business Confidence Index is currently at 154 (for January), a vast improvement over around 138 last July. The Political Confidence Index,similarly, is at an all-time high of 127.7. Interestingly, however, confidence levels appear to have risen in areas which are not traditional growth areas and have fallen, albeit marginally, in traditional growth areas. Thus, business confidence in west and south India has fallen, while rising in north and east India " makes you want to question the results a bit. Equally inexplicable is the fall in business confidence in large firms (turnover over Rs 500 crore) and the sharp rise in firms with sales of less than Rs 1 crore. Firms in the Rs 10-100 crore bracket have also seen an unexplained ten-fold growth in confidence levels. Perhaps the next round will clarify matters.