Sunita Narain: Business in Bali

DOWN TO EARTH

Climate change is the biggest story of the 21st century. But its sheer complexity is defeating us. Now as the world prepares to burn more carbon miles to travel to the paradise of Bali in Indonesia for the 13th Conference of Parties to the climate convention, it will discuss, once again, what it knows it needs to do. We can only hope that this time the response will be different and desperate. The problem is that even as science is certain of the disaster that awaits us, the politics of climate change stinks.

After years of procrastination, the industrialised countries agreed in 1997 to make a small cut in their gargantuan emissions, in the interest of all. These cuts were nowhere close to what was needed to avert climate change. The fact (mostly unsaid) is these countries have done nothing, absolutely nothing, to contain their emissions. Between 1990 and 2005, rich country emissions have gone up by 11 per cent. Emissions of countries like the US have increased by 20 per cent, and Australia's by 37 per cent. They have all reneged on their commitment. They have let us all down.

But how can they get away with this? Why is the focus on China and India; still much poorer and already more environmentally responsible for action?

The reason is two-fold. One, the rich can 'officially' fudge because they are allowed to use low emissions from the collapsed economies of the former Soviet Union countries to dilute the statistics. Two, they get away with it because world opinion backs them. After all, emissions are related to wealth and power. Who will rock this boat?

We also know that it is the world's need for energy""to run everything from factories to cars""that is the cause of climate change. After years of talk, no country has been able to delink growth from a rise in carbon dioxide emissions. The rich countries' energy industry-related emissions have increased by 24 per cent in the 1990-2005 period "" when they had committed to change. No country has shown how to build a low-carbon economy or re-invent the growth path""as yet.

This then is the challenge. After years of talk, new renewable energy""wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels""comprises just about 0.5 per cent of the world's primary energy supply. It is misleading to say that renewable sources add more electricity than nuclear power. It is old renewable""hydroelectric power""which makes the world light up.

It is tragic that the world is hiding behind the poverty of its people to fudge its maths. The renewable sector is made up of the biomass combustion""firewood, cowdung, leaves and twigs""used by the desperately poor to cook and light their homes. This is providing the world its breathing space.

Is it not ironical that though science tells us drastic reductions are needed, no country is talking about limiting consumption? This is when every analysis proves that efficiency is part of the answer but is meaningless without sufficiency. Cars have become more fuel-efficient but people just drive more and have more cars. Emissions keep rising.

The world must realise the bitter truth. Equity is a prerequisite for an effective climate agreement. The fact is that without co-operation, this global agreement will not work. It is for this reason that the world must seriously consider the concept of equal per capita emission entitlements so that the rich reduce and the poor do not go beyond their climate quota. We need responsible and effective action on climate change.

The choice for our leaders is clear. They can be key players at this critical juncture. Or they can join the mock games. They can deny the urgency of climate change. Or they can fight for the victims of climate change and demand much more effective action from the rich world. They can pretend that the problem will go away once they get rich. Or they can provide leadership to the rich and the poor world by showing a different pathway to growth.

But we must not give our leaders this empty choice. We must insist there is only one way""the right and climate-effective way. Climate change is an extraordinary crisis that demands an extraordinary response. We will accept nothing less. We cannot.