The so-termed “advance estimates” of crop production, the agriculture ministry’s version of crop output forecasts, lack credence. The huge difference between the first advance estimates and final estimates is untenable. Besides, the present system for estimating crop area and anticipating yield seems incapable of making early season forecasts, which are vital for planning and policy formulation. Moreover, the use of modern technology, notably satellite-based remote sensing techniques, remains meagre.
Unsound policies concerning imports, exports, internal trade and stockholding of agro-commodities, as a result of unrealistic harvest projections, invariably cause market distortions and create problems for producers, traders and end-users. This is all the more so in the case of commercial crops such as cotton, sugarcane and oilseeds, for which the official projections often vary widely from those of the trade and industry. A case in point is the government’s decision to ban cotton exports. It had to be retracted soon in the wake of adverse political fallout and outcry by cotton farmers.
Krishi Bhawan, of course, is not apathetic towards improving the quality of crop forecasting. However, its overdependence on the states to source crop-related information and a paucity of technology-driven means to validate the veracity of such information have been the main stumbling blocks.
Incredible as it may sound, the fact is that the first set of crop estimates issued after the completion of crop sowing, which are the earliest indicators of the emerging supply scenario, are compiled chiefly on the basis of “visual observations” by the state agriculture departments’ field staff. Worse, even these visual observations are not always recorded through actual field visits; at times they are based on mere anecdotal information.
The need to use space technology for crop assessment and drought monitoring was, indeed, realised during the monsoon failure in 1987 that caused widespread crop damage and livestock deaths. However, suitable methodologies and software packages to capture cropped area and crop condition through remote sensing were lacking. Besides, since remote sensing required crops to have sufficiently grown above ground for the satellite images to capture the details, this technology was of little help for making forecasts at sowing stage. For that, econometric and agro-meteorological models were needed. These models could take into account various factors that influence farmers’ decisions: the previous year’s crop acreage and output, past and prevailing market prices and the current season’s weather status.
A new programme was, therefore, launched in 2006. It aimed at amalgamating the information gathered from different sources, including land-based data and remote sensing inputs, to come up with timely and objective crop forecasts. This programme, called “Forecasting agricultural output using space, agro-meteorological and land-based observations” (FASAL), has been evolving into a reliable crop prediction mechanism. The remote sensing component of FASAL is being handled by the Ahmedabad-based Space Application Centre of the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro). This apart, Isro’s National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad, is also operating a “National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System” (NADAMS). This system is meant to provide real-time information about the prevalence and severity of droughts at district and sub-district level in 13 key agricultural states. It prepares fortnightly reports on droughts by using advanced wide-field sensors of satellites like Resourcesat-1, IRS 1C and IRS 1D.
Significantly, since both FASAL and NADAMS have reached their operational stage after having developed the necessary methodologies, these have now been merged and put under the control of the newly launched National Crop Forecast Centre (NCFC). This centre, located at the New Delhi-based Pusa institute campus, is said to be adequately equipped with image-processing facilities, laboratories and software. Interestingly, the NCFC has been named after the well-known Indian statistician P C Mahalanobis, founder of the Indian Statistical Institute, who played a significant role in evolving methods to estimate crop yields. The NCFC is set to begin issuing crop forecasts and drought situation reports from the ensuing kharif season for 11 major crops. More crops are planned to be taken up subsequently. If the NCFC manages to skillfully collate the crop-related information obtained from diverse sources, including Isro and the weather office, to come up with trustworthy pre-harvest forecasts, it would serve a highly useful purpose.