The new 'records' of most crops are not significantly higher than those achieved in the past.
The updated crop production estimates released by Krishi Bhawan for 2007-08 and the previous year, showing new production records for most crops, may suggest an impressive performance of agriculture, but a closer look at the numbers shows that the new peaks are not significantly above the levels scaled in the past. The average annual growth beyond the previous high levels has been rather modest in most crops, barring cotton.
The two key staple grains, rice and wheat, have failed to show the desired growth, holding out little hope on the food security front as yet. On top of that, this year’s monsoon has so far been far from satisfactory, jeopardising agriculture’s good run.
Take wheat, the crop that has been in the news because of resumption of imports. The latest reckoning puts the wheat output in 2007-08 at a record 78.40 million tonnes. But this is just about 2 million tonnes higher than the 76.37 million tonnes harvested eight years ago in 1999-2000. This reflects an average annual growth of mere 0.3 per cent, which surely leaves no room for rejoicing over the all-time production.
The rice situation is no better. Last year’s peak output of 96.43 million tonnes is only around 3 million tonnes above the 93.34 million tonnes bagged six years ago, marking a growth of just 0.5 per cent a year, on an average.
Thus, progress in the main staple cereals is too meagre, far lower than population growth. The need for food imports in future cannot, therefore, be ruled out. The saving grace is that the decline has been stemmed.
| WHAT RECORD? (Crop production versus previous highs, in million tonnes) | |||||
| Crop | 2007-08 | Previous high | Year of previous high | Difference | Annual Growth (%) |
| Wheat | 78.4 | 76.4 | 1999-00 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| Rice | 96.4 | 93.3 | 2001-02 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| Coarse Cereals | 40.7 | 37.6 | 2003-04 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Pulses | 15.1 | 14.9 | 1998-99 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Total Foodgrains | 230.7 | 213.2 | 2003-04 | 17.5 | 2.0 |
| Oilseeds | 28.8 | 24.8 | 1998-99 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| Cotton (mn bales) | 25.8 | 14.2 | 1996-97* | 11.6 | 5.6 |
| * Cotton growth has really surged after Bt cotton was introduced Source: Ministry of Agriculture | |||||
On the other hand, coarse cereals, which have got largely pushed out of the human food basket and have now virtually turned into commercial crops, have managed to do well, riding on the back of high prices thanks to good demand from poultry and livestock sectors and the starch industry. These crops, albeit still grown largely as rain-fed crops, have shown an average annual growth of around 2 per cent in past four years.
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Pulses are, by far, the worst performers, with no sign of an end to stagnation in output. The record harvest of 15.11 million tonnes in 2007-08 is, indeed, hardly any improvement over 14.91 million-tonne level touched way back in 1998-99. Considering that pulses continue to be a key source of protein in the common man’s diet, this situation is worrying. The dependence on imports will, therefore, continue to grow.
Oilseeds have faired better than pulses and foodgrains thanks largely to industry-supported growth in the cultivation of soyabean. It has shown an average annual growth of around 1.8 per cent for nearly a decade now. In the current kharif too, while the area under groundnut has shrunk due to poor rains, that of soyabean has expanded.
Cotton, despite earning some discredit due to farmers’ suicides in the cotton-growing belts of Maharashtra and other southern states, has done exceedingly well, especially after the advent of the controversial Bt cotton hybrids in 2002. The average annual growth rate in cotton output rose to an impressive 22 per cent after the introduction of Bt cotton in 2003-2004. That shows the significance of technology.