With an Obama election, America should reclaim its status as the most desirable country other than one’s own
The extraordinary events in world financial markets have partially hidden from view one of the most extraordinary events of our time. Scholars have been writing stories about either the death of American capitalism, and/or that European capitalism is a “better” form of existence. Anti-Americanism has been propelled upwards by several major events over the Bush years. It started with the Neo-con Iraq adventure and has now reached a new peak with the near-collapse of the world financial system. Perhaps because of these mis-adventures, or perhaps because America has been a top dog for so long, the knee-jerk reaction is to be anti-American. This is unfair. Americans are the true evolutionaries, constantly questioning, evolving, and changing.
As Indians, we share several traits with them — twins separated at birth, really. We (the two societies) are extremely opinionated, sometimes on the verge of arrogance, hardworking, extremely religious but with a strong belief that religion is a private matter. Both societies are extremely entrepreneurial and inventive. On an absolute basis, America is way ahead of India, though sometimes we speak better English. But where Americans are truly ahead, and truly classy, is in their complete security and belief in themselves. And this belief distinguishes them from the rest of the world — the constant endeavour to question whatever they, and especially their leaders, do.
The Viet-Nam war was recognised as a huge mistake within months of the Gulf of Tonkin resolution authorising the war. Ditto the case with the Iraq adventure. Now how many societies/countries in the world can demonstrate such introspection and a willingness to admit that they have done wrong, and wrong to others? In most societies, if you criticise the government, you are considered a traitor; in several others, you are put in jail. But not in America — whether it is Noam Chomsky, or Joe the Plumber, you are heard, and can have a following.
America examines its mistakes in an open, democratic fashion. If any society lets all the dirty laundry out, it is America. Witness the wrangling, the debate on world TV, about the financial bailout. Most of us would have said, and did say, that the American Congress was extremely irresponsible, and stupid, to delay the bailout package. But if the Congress messed up, the Fed has provided leadership (contrast that with the complete lack of leadership of the European Central Bank). Some people say that the financial crisis was brought upon by the Americans; it most likely was, but as events of the last month have shown, the Europeans might have absorbed bad American “capitalism” even more than the masters! Leadership is defined by the response to the crisis, regardless of its origin. This is where Americans are ahead, way ahead, of all other nations. They spend much more time in devising solutions than in blame calling. And what drives them to this conclusion — recognition that mistakes are made, will be made. The important thing is to respond appropriately to what has gone wrong, and then wait for the next error to be made.
As Lord Tennyson might have said about America, “They will not cease from questioning… they strive, they seek, to make a better world.” What greater proof about the wisdom of America, and its greatness, than the miracle election we have all watched unfold? All of us have stories about how no one foresaw the possibility that a man with a funny name and even funnier ears would become the Presidential nominee of a major political party. None of us (well, mostly none — more on that below!) would have forecast that a black man would become President of the United States of America. There are four days left but all the evidence suggests that the American dream will become a reality.
When it does, it will mark yet another turning point in American, and world, history. In my view, world financial markets will welcome this change, as will the world. There should be a huge peace dividend with Obama’s election, a dividend not only from past wars, but future wars averted. This is not to say that because Obama is President, there will be peace in the world. Far from it. But what one can state, with some certainty, is that the perception of foreigners, and countries “hostile” to America, will be different once Obama is the President. The perception will be less adversarial, if not one of outright admiration. And the perception of others, by Obama, is considerably different, and better, than President Bush.
Let me end this tribute to America with a confession. I have been a political junkie from pre-teenage days. And political forecasts come with the territory, as well as being wrong. While I have got several political forecasts right, the one my friends (and enemies!) remember is the one I got spectacularly wrong — the 1991 Indian election in which I forecast that the Congress party, and Rajiv Gandhi, would easily win. The Congress won, but by a much lower margin than I had predicted.
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It is redemption time. I have been forecasting an Obama win since early 2007. Many believed this was a forecast from the heart, but it was both — heart and head. The “head” part I will claim comes from an understanding of the American society — they eventually, and much faster than other societies, make the “right” decision. So thank you, America, for again providing leadership worthy of your heritage and your belief in “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness”.
The author is Chairman, Oxus Investments, a New Delhi-based asset management company. The views expressed are personal. E-mail: surjit.bhalla@oxusinvestments.com