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<b>T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan:</b> Indian politics' 3-Body Problem

Instability is an inherent feature of the number three. Three bodies always spell trouble

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T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan
Last Updated : Dec 27 2013 | 11:54 PM IST
For the past few weeks, considerable attention has been focussed on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and what its emergence means for the politics of Delhi and India. Experts and laypersons have waxed eloquent.

They needn't have. The answer, which came in a trice from a friend, is quite simple: "teen tigada, kaam bigada". This is the folksy Hindi way of saying that three means trouble.

Indeed, regardless of which way one looks at it - economics, physics, and culture - the answer is the same. Three means trouble.

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There is, it seems, something about the number three that makes it as much of a wonder as a nuisance. It is a wonder because it has been used in a variety of ways by every culture since culture began; and it is a nuisance because it is inherently destabilising in a large number of ways.

The economics way: How do two ice-cream vendors position themselves on a beach so that each can maximise his sales? Harold Hotelling, who was one of the most insightful economists, suggested that they would converge to the centre and not, as they should, remain at the two ends of the beach or, failing that, at two equidistant points on either side of the exact centre.

His point was that locating at the centre was not the most efficient solution.

Great, but what would happen when a third ice-cream vendor turns up? In what positions would the three of them settle? Indeed, would they settle anywhere at all? The answer is a dismaying no.

The physics way: The problem was first enunciated in 1760 by the German mathematician Leonhard Euler in whose name there are half a dozen theorems. It is known now as Euler's Three Body Problem, wherein, to cut a long story short, you try to find out what happens to the motion of particle when the gravitational fields of two other bodies (that are fixed in space) exert influence on it.

The solution was found in what is called the inverse square law, which says the intensity of things is inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them.

In the other words, don't get too close because, then, in order not to wobble off your trajectory you will have to perform all sorts of impossible feats calling for changes in angular momentum and what not. Solvable, but inherently unstable.

The culture way: The Christians have their Holy Trinity, the Hindus have Brahma, Shiva and Vishnu, there are the three jewels of Buddhism, and so on. The number three plays an important role in sports as well. Indeed, it is ubiquitous, including in romance and marriage - three is a crowd and all that. When you examine each of these closely, you find how problematic any one of the three (but usually the smallest one) can be at a given time. Space does not allow me to explain in the detail needed but you can conduct the exercise yourself.

The politics way: The Germans are still struggling with their three-sided political system. The British did so around this time last century.

In India, meanwhile, states that have two parties or formations - Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and so on - have generally tended to do better in economic terms than states that have more than two parties such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir and so on. States with three major contending parties have done the worst.

But never mind all that. For present purposes, ask if the AAP has created a new version of this age-old problem for Delhi. As we are going to discover over the next few months, indeed it has. Delhi is in deep trouble.

The Congress may have only eight seats in the Delhi Assembly but it is a very large body in India with a huge gravitational force. So is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has 32 seats.

The AAP has to revolve between these two and will have to make constant adjustments to, well, its angular momentum - and seldom has there been a more angular set of people - if it wants to stay in business. These adjustments, by the way, are called political compromises.

Whatever it does, and whichever way it does it, overall, it will be a very unstable system, almost exactly like the one that comes up when the third ice-cream vendor turns up at the beach.

Everyone will constantly shift their positions, as we have seen them do over the last year or so (for example, the BJP saying it will cut power tariffs by 30 per cent against the AAP's 50 per cent and the Congress actually supporting the AAP government!).

This is because even little shifts can fetch a few more customers for the ice-cream vendors and a few more votes for political parties. For very little effort, large rewards can be garnered.

Teen tigada, kaam bigada.


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Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper

First Published: Dec 27 2013 | 10:44 PM IST

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