T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan: Is her party or the US up to it?

LINE & LENGTH

Every possible reason except the real one""that she is a she""will be put forth to keep Mrs Clinton out.

Will the next president of the US be a woman? Will it be Hillary Clinton?

One would have thought that Indians would be more interested in the question than they appear to be. After all, except during the Kennedy administration, which seems to have left an indelible impression on them, the Democrats have generally shafted India or tried their best to do so.

So it would be reasonable to expect Indians to hope for another Republican President. Can they imagine a Democrat President coming up with something like the nuclear deal? Oddly, not many seem to care. Shilpa Shetty and her British tormentor are more riveting.

That is surely strange for a country which slyly tries to get into bed with America at every possible opportunity these days, and whose people simply can't wait to migrate. The Democrats will be bad news for the latter, not to mention all those BPO-wallahs.

It is too early to tell, of course, what will become of Mrs Clinton's attempt. There are nearly two years to go before the next election. Her biggest problem may well be her own party, whose support""nomination, as they call it in the US""she must win to fight the presidential election.

Her party has always presented itself as left-liberal, meaning "for the poor and supportive of change". It is this latter claim that will be tested now as it bites the gender bullet. It has had a nibble once before, when it nominated a woman for the post of vice-president.

But this is different. This is the Big Job, the biggest in the world, in fact, and it will take a lot of courage for the Democratic Party to make the leap. The US is a male-oriented country and it will be a huge surprise if it chooses a woman to lead it.

The American masses, like the masses in other countries, are a prejudiced lot. They may not be ready yet for a woman to lead them.

That is why one feels very sorry for the party leadership and its supporters. They are being asked to choose between a woman and an Afro-American""Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. Will they play safe and opt for John Edwards, instead, of good white, male stock?

In spite of claiming to be at the forefront of social and political revolutions, America is actually nowhere in the picture. In religion, the Europeans have done better and in politics, many developing countries have shown the way. In that sense they are closer to conservative Islam than any other social philosophy.

Could this, then, be the time for every woman in the US to stand up and be counted? Mrs Clinton, being woman, must be aware how awful educated women can be towards other educated women.

So she may not want to focus on the female vote, and may present herself as being one of the guys. But that is unlikely to wash.

Every possible reason except the real one""that she is a she""will be put forth to keep her out, such as her being non-committal on important national issues or changing her mind on them, as she is said to have done about the US involvement in Iraq. Her ability to raise the necessary funding will also be a factor, as will the perception that she is not a warm person, that she is an upper class denizen who probably doesn't have the common touch.

The US election process is not a milk run. Indeed, it is probably the roughest in the world where no holds are barred. To see just how rough it can get, look at the salvo that Mrs Clinton has fired at Senator Barack Obama, who is also in the race.

According to Fox News, she has accused him of having attended a madarsa. In post-9/11 US this is as bad having been a paedophile or member of the SS. Having set the tone, Mrs Clinton can now expect retaliation in kind. We wait with bated breath for things to hot up.

Like in many other countries, US elections are also decided by the floating vote, the people who decide at the last minute, that too usually on a whim. What makes the US different is that it has an unusually large number of such people. Considering how few actually turn out to vote""the last election was an exception because of 9/11""these floaters become crucial.

So it will be interesting to see what strategy Mrs Clinton adopts to reduce their numbers. She has already said that health insurance will be an important issue for her. Another major test for her will be how she measures up against the Iraq problem, including what plan she comes up with for getting the US out of it.

So if nothing else, the world will get a good run for its money in the next 20 months. An important element of that surely will be the prospect of getting Bill back into the White House, this time with even less need for restraint.