T N Ninan: China's appeal

WEEKEND RUMINATIONS

A few years ago, the Indian external affairs minister of the time recounted an encounter that he had with his counterpart from a small Asian country that generally has to make sure that Beijing is not displeased.

We want friendly relations with India, the counterpart said, and China has no problem with that at all. But almost reflexively, even as he said so to our minister, he looked over his shoulder to make sure no one from China was listening.

That little episode came to mind when reading the other day the results of a poll which said that the general public in many countries of virtually all the continents now regard China more favourably than the United States.

It is a surprising finding, and perhaps more a reflection of the unpopularity of American foreign (and perhaps even domestic) policy under President Bush than any street-level endorsement of China.

For while it is easy to see that China has gained respect as a rising power, is a strong economic magnet and has traditionally attracted scholars and travellers because of its cultural heritage, it is hard to see today's China appealing to people in the many broad ways in which ordinary people like and approve of (say) America and American systems.

The Chinese political system, for a start, is clearly out of step with the modern world; one can think of youngsters from very few countries who would want to live in such a system.

If people were asked to say what they like about China, they are unlikely to mention the Chinese education system or its bigger companies, its films and music, its arts and its literature.

Part of the problem is of course the language and the barriers that it puts up, but the issue goes deeper.

Sure, there are people who will follow Taoism, just as there are people who find acupuncture useful, but it should be obvious that China does not win many people over through the ways in which that country and its people express themselves.

The obvious exception is Chinese food, but you can enjoy that while having little contact with people from mainland China. And so, it might be argued, China is not really able to extend its influence and forge affinities that make for long-lasting ties.

What it can and does provoke is respect and, to some degree, the wariness that the Asian foreign minister displayed. China exudes power, not real influence over people's minds.

If you think the US hasn't scored many diplomatic triumphs in recent years, look at the record of Chinese diplomacy and you see nothing other than a series of setbacks.

Its multilateral engagements are minimal. Bilaterally, there are tensions with both Japan and Taiwan, the initiatives with North Korea have reached nowhere, and relations with the US are about what you would expect when two prize fighters are circling each other in the ring, sizing each other up.

It would be wrong, though, to conclude from this that China is isolated in any way. On the contrary, it is integrating rapidly with the rest of East Asia.

The growing intra-regional trade has meant that China will soon replace the US as the largest trading partner for many Asian economies (including India), and most of the smaller East Asian countries now realise that they need to watch the economic signals from Beijing and Shanghai almost as much as from Washington.

Also, any institutional structures that are worked out in the region, related to security or diplomatic arrangements, will inevitably include China; America's inclusion, if it happens, will be a direct reflection of regional wariness about what China might get up to, and because the smaller countries will look for a counter-weight.

As time passes, it will be increasingly difficult to see most Asian countries taking diplomatic positions that are not to Beijing's liking. The power will grow, so (it might seem) will wariness, but perhaps not affinity.

This is an opportunity for India, with its more open systems, its western-origin institutional structures, its friendlier people, its more accessible religious heritage, its contemporary cultural appeal (the spread of yoga, the crossover following for its films), the bestsellers being trotted out by Indian writers, and of course the new respect for Indian brainpower.

Irrespective of what China is seen to stand for, these are assets to be built upon as India engages more with the world.