T N Ninan: Clarity, not emotion

WEEKEND RUMINATIONS

Indian attitudes to China reflect the full range of emotions and attitudes that can be expected from the junior partner in what Indians would like to see as a competitive relationship. At one end, there is plain fear ("we will get swamped by Chinese products"), the inability to forget past humiliations (defeat in the 1962 border war), and suspicion about motives ("they are encircling us"). Simultaneously, there is a state of denial ("China's growth numbers are exaggerated"), a combination of defiance and bravado ("we are no less than them"), an attempt to belittle the other ("they are neither Communist nor pro-people"), and premature expansiveness at the prospect of victory (as in responses to Goldman Sachs' forecast that Indian growth rates will eclipse China's in 15 years).

Now that President Hu has finished a visit that is generally seen as having been useful but less than a triumph, and has hopped across to Pakistan to announce a free trade pact and faster growth in trade than what has been projected with India, many of these attitudes will get a fresh airing. Perhaps a dispassionate assessment of reality would reduce re-active responses and encourage greater volition, and help reason prevail over emotion.

For a start, the Chinese civilisation has historically been a more powerful force than India's. Even today, Chinese society has greater homogeneity, its economy is thrice the size of India's, and it is on its way to becoming a great power whereas India's real ambition is to be the pre-eminent regional power. China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and of the Nuclear Five, whereas India is still pushing to get a foot into these clubs.

To admit these self-evident facts is not to show any lack of awareness of India's strengths. As a former Indian ambassador to Beijing articulated it, India is much more in tune with the demands of globalisation than China""and that claim covers many facets linked to the openness of a system and how rules-based it is. This crucial advantage manifests itself in seemingly unrelated ways""like the greater efficiency with which India uses capital. It is also as well to realise that we have been scoring many own-goals, especially when it comes to economic mismanagement and in the way we deal with our underclass (in which must now be counted the Muslims, apart from Dalits and tribals""making up over a third of the population). If we are to deal with China without feeling internally weak or cornered by an admittedly more powerful neighbour, these are the two fundamental issues that have to be addressed. One is the basis for national security and power (and needed also to prevent farmer suicides and nip Naxalism in the bud), the other is vital for social cohesion and to make our inescapable diversity a source of strength.

It is also important to assess where China stands, warts and all. On the one hand, incidents of "mass disturbances" (i.e. involving 15 people or more) have multiplied 10-fold in 15 years, topping 80,000 last year. That suggests rapidly growing internal unrest. Yet, Pew Research says that 81 per cent of Chinese are satisfied with the state of their nation, with the situation having improved substantially over the years. By way of contrast, only 29 per cent of Americans are happy with the state of affairs in the US. But then, China has to make more substantial transitions than India""whether it is in the reform of state-owned enterprises or of its banking sector, the management of its exchange rate or in the fairness with which it deals with foreign enterprises; on the other hand, it is more single-minded about doing what needs to get done.

As we engage more with China, some of the negative emotions should fade away: there is no need for fear when bilateral trade is not hugely unbalanced; and the more multi-faceted the relationship becomes, the less the border humiliation of old will rankle. The key issue is to stop scoring own-goals, and it is the confidence to be gained from that which will help India view China as Nehru said we would view the world: "with clear and friendly eyes".