T N Ninan: High noon

WEEKEND RUMINATIONS

This week has been a rare high noon for Indian diplomacy. The Chinese Prime Minister has come and gone after what is generally regarded as a good visit in both strategic and economic terms.

The Pakistan President is here, having made statements that soft borders are not a bad idea when it comes to Jammu & Kashmir (Manmohan Singh must be smiling).

And in Washington, the foreign minister has met the US President and listened to more positive noises being made. Summit- level meetings with the sole hyperpower and our two most important neighbours, all in one week, certainly raise the bar of diplomatic activity to a new high.

If anything is missing in this picture, it won't remain that way for long because the Prime Minister will soon be headed for Moscow.

These are not crisis meetings, for relations have been improving all around. With the US and China, they have never been better in the past 45 years.

Even with Pakistan, the new bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad marks a small breakthrough, and Gen Musharraf seems to be projecting a new realism that was missing earlier.

There is also a new equilibrium with post-Soviet Russia, though defence purchases play an inordinately large role here.

This is a self-reinforcing process. Improving ties with one country gives India more elbow room with the others.

Reducing border tensions with China, ahead of a final demarcation of boundaries (still many years away), makes it possible to reduce troop commitments in the mountains, and free soldiers for deployment elsewhere.

American promises of helping India become a great power, however patronising that sounds, will tell the Chinese that they should not play too many games in this part of the world lest it push India even more into American arms.

Similarly, entente with China will be a message that registers in Washington, especially when it is accompanied by rapid growth in trade""to the point where it starts rivalling Indo-US trade.

And Pakistan realises, whether it cares to admit it or not, that India has moved into another league and it had better temper its expectations. For good measure, Asean too has started making eyes at India.

Could there be an accident along the way? Of course yes, for this is an accident-prone corner of the world. The Musharraf visit could go badly, or there could be another terrorist outrage""we should worry for the passengers in future buses going across the new friendship bridge.

The Chinese will most likely continue their encirclement game in South Asia, and if we don't buy either the F-16/18s or the Boeings, the American smile may turn into a frown.

Even if there are no accidents, it is wise to keep in touch with reality. Whatever the Americans may say, India is not a great power""not when we don't rank among the top 30 trading nations of the world, and not when we cannot project military power beyond our immediate environment (whether we want to is another matter).

All that our neighbours and the US are telling us is that they are waking up to India's potential, and therefore beginning to take the country seriously.

Realising that potential will take a lot of hard work, and most of it lies outside the scope of diplomacy.

As everyone knows, national security (or power, if you will) is a multi-strand thread that includes economic power, internal political cohesion, secure borders, technological prowess, a strong military, and what is called soft power-the ability to influence trends and thought in other societies through cultural richness and confidence in the idea of India.

None of these factors can be pushed rapidly in any one direction, especially in a large and complex country. In the end, it is that long hard process which used to be called nation-building, and India has just about begun the journey.

Diplomacy may have reached an early high noon, and there may be emerging high points that have caught domestic and international attention.

But as so many international surveys and rankings make clear, the dark matter between these stars is still preponderant, and we are still some distance from the tipping point where the whole sky above India begins to light up.