If successful, Azevedo will manage to get member countries to remain enthusiastic about taking the multilateral trade liberalisation process forward in the post-Bali period. The two most contentious issues that have been negotiated hard in the last one week is food security, which has been raised by the G-33 group of countries, and is critical to India, and an agreement on trade facilitation that is being backed by all developed country members. The third issue of development that is important for least developed countries (LDCs) has also remained in the forefront of negotiations.
Reports suggest that on food security, the developed countries would like to provide a longer time period for the peace clause that will allow 46 developing country members of the G-33 to raise the limit of allowable subsidised stockpiles. The G-33 may agree to the proposal of an extended peace clause if they find a balance across various other issues that are slated for an agreement at Bali. On agriculture, the WTO member countries are also discussing proposals for reducing export subsidies and related policies known collectively as "export competition" to look at reforming the quota provisions for import of agricultural products used by countries under tariff rate quotas.
On the issue of trade facilitation, reports suggest that the number of disagreements have been reduced and the negotiators have now moved to discussing Section II of a draft agreement on trade facilitation. This section provides the basis for special and differential treatment, and for technical assistance and capacity building needed for the implementation of the agreement. Trade facilitation is being billed as a very important deliverable for the Bali Ministerial and there have been several studies expounding the benefits of a trade facilitation agreement for all countries.
The Indian industry has been supportive of a trade facilitation agreement at Bali. However, it has pointed out that an agreement on trade facilitation cannot be a stand-alone since it would lead to an imbalance in the final deliverables at the Ministerial conference.
According to reports, the third element of a deliverable under the development pillar is also at an advanced stage of negotiations at Geneva. On development, members have agreed to proposals by LDCs on preferential rules of origin, and on operationalisation of the services waiver for them. Member countries are continuing to work on duty-free, quota-free treatment for LDCs. Members are also consulting on a monitoring mechanism for special and differential treatment for developing countries under WTO agreements.
The Director General is due to report to the final General Council meeting before Bali - on November 21 - on progress in his consultations. This meeting will be critical since he has made it clear earlier this week that the Bali Ministerial cannot be a negotiating Ministerial. Speaking to members on November 12 Azevedo had said, "The risk of failure is still present". He said "it is all or nothing now - we must tie the package up once and for all in the next few days". He was categorical that all negotiations have to be concluded at Geneva so that the Ministerial could be deliberate on taking the multilateral process forward based on success that will be achieved at Bali. This stand taken by the Director General had put pressure on the member countries to bring out the flexibility available to them in the last few days after the finish line had been clearly indicated by Azevedo.
The fate of the Bali Ministerial is likely to be clear by next week. Hopefully all countries will find enough on the table in the next few days to ensure that the Ministerial is a success. It will be important to clearly chalk out a post-Bali road map to cover several areas under the Doha Round that have remained unresolved for several years. However, in their eagerness to conclude a deal the development perspective in the Doha Round should not be sidestepped by any country.
The author is Principal Adviser- APJ-SLG Law Offices