Tayyip Erdogan's harsh response to the popular demonstrations in Istanbul's Taksim Square is unsettling in its irrationality. The Turkish prime minister leads a government that enjoys the support of more than half the population. During its 10-year rule, his moderately Islamist AK Party has presided over the fastest GDP growth in the OECD and a turnaround of the nation's finances. Turkey was headed, slowly but surely, towards European Union membership. Erdogan himself was sailing towards being elected next year as the country's president, a job beefed up to keep him as the country's strong-man.
The prime minister, who knows a bit about public opinion, must realise that he is not under threat. How is it then that a protest against the uprooting of trees for a development project turned into the type of massive confrontation more in character in Moscow or Cairo? Not that the situations bear comparison. Turks have a democracy - Russians don't, and Turks are prosperous - Egyptians aren't.
To understand, one would have to look at Erdogan's steady slide into authoritarianism over the last three years, which has included bogus trials of supposed military plotters, the jailing of journalists and regular attempts to force Islam-inspired rules upon a secular civil society. Erdogan has behaved more like an obtuse party chief than the pragmatic ruler he seemed to be when he took over. He may have felt emboldened by the lack of strong opposition parties. But his task as prime minister was, precisely because of that, to mind the people who feel that his "Justice and Development" party has brought them more development than justice.
Investors may be waking up. The lira barely moved on June 3, but the stock market's nine per cent dive - although not too dramatic by emerging economies standards - is a reminder that Turkey, with a current account deficit at seven per cent of GDP, still depends on foreign investment.
Retreating further into an authoritarian regime should not be an option under any rational scenario. Tourists will stay away, capital flows may reverse as Erdogan loses his cachet as a man the rest of the world wants to do business with. If he persists, that could happen quickly.
The prime minister, who knows a bit about public opinion, must realise that he is not under threat. How is it then that a protest against the uprooting of trees for a development project turned into the type of massive confrontation more in character in Moscow or Cairo? Not that the situations bear comparison. Turks have a democracy - Russians don't, and Turks are prosperous - Egyptians aren't.
To understand, one would have to look at Erdogan's steady slide into authoritarianism over the last three years, which has included bogus trials of supposed military plotters, the jailing of journalists and regular attempts to force Islam-inspired rules upon a secular civil society. Erdogan has behaved more like an obtuse party chief than the pragmatic ruler he seemed to be when he took over. He may have felt emboldened by the lack of strong opposition parties. But his task as prime minister was, precisely because of that, to mind the people who feel that his "Justice and Development" party has brought them more development than justice.
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Retreating further into an authoritarian regime should not be an option under any rational scenario. Tourists will stay away, capital flows may reverse as Erdogan loses his cachet as a man the rest of the world wants to do business with. If he persists, that could happen quickly.