The 21st century's 'equaliser'

As recent attacks have shown, even dirt-cheap drones can cause a lot of damage

In the 19th century, inventor “Colonel” Samuel Colt, sold his patented revolvers with the tagline, “God made man and Sam Colt made them equal”. The killer app (literally!) for Colt’s mass-produced guns was they were cheap, easy to carry, and reliable. 

The drone is the 21st century’s “equaliser”. A few days ago, Houthi rebels from Yemen knocked out 5 per cent of global refining capacity using drones, which may have been loaded with homemade explosives to hit Saudi Arabian facilities in two locations. Some of the many drones used by the Houthis may cost as little as $45, while the most expensive may cost over $15,000. The American Predator and Reaper drones cost tens of millions each, and have far superior firepower and technology. 

But as the Houthis have shown, in this and previous attacks, even dirt-cheap drones can cause a lot of damage. Some carry payloads of up to 40 kg of explosives. The more expensive have ranges of up to 1,500 km. Off-the-shelf civilian drones can be adapted to carry explosive payloads. These can be smuggled in kit form and assembled close to target. 

Many non-state actors like Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi use drones. In fact, drones seem to be ubiquitous in most of the ongoing Middle East conflicts with everybody using versions of these unmanned aerial vehicles. Most drones are small and fly close to the ground, so they are hard to pick up on radar. If swarms are launched, some may penetrate even sophisticated defences.  

Conventional military forces started using drones extensively in the early 2000s. Yemen was an early proving ground for the vast US arsenal. Weapons like the Predator, which “loiter” for days over a specific location can be controlled by operators thousands of kilometres away. 

Military drones are used for reconnaissance, and also to gun down specific people after the operator has zoomed in to identify an assassination target. These can also bomb targets with precision. They are also used to deliver equipment and supplies. Some are kamikaze — these fly into the target and explode. Stopping a drone can involve using nets to prevent access and fighters to shoot them down. It may also prevent decrypting and jamming of electronic signals used to control them. 

Since drones come in many shapes and sizes, they have a wide variety of civilian uses as well. Police use them to survey crowds and watch sensitive locations. They are used extensively in disaster relief and rescue. They are used in crop spraying, ground-mapping, and underground surveys of airless mines and caves. The Japanese used miniature drones to survey the Fukushima reactor after the 2011 tsunami when radiation levels were too high for humans. There is talk of using drones as ambulances and air-taxis, and also to deliver pizza. 

Making a cheap drone is not a big deal. A smart high-school kid could design and put together a drone, by machining and adding off-the-shelf components. China sells a vast array of civilian drones, mostly quad-copters of various sizes. Drones are also manufactured with varying degrees of sophistication by Israel, Iran, Turkey and others. 

Military developments add many layers of technology. At least a dozen countries make military drones. These can be equipped with AI-based flight systems, and multiple sensors as well as cannon, lasers, missiles and bombs. The latest wrinkle is the fully-autonomous drone, which can find, and hit targets without operators actually pulling the trigger. Turkey, for instance, is said to be considering deploying such autonomous UAVs. This raises a new set of ethical questions. 

India has many military drone defence projects on the anvil, including collaborations with Israel. It also buys drones from Israel. The Rustom II had its first test flights in 2018. Rustom II is part of the TAPAS 201 project, designed by the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), the Bengaluru-based lab of DRDO. HAL-BEL are the fabricators. This is a multi-mission UAV which could carry out Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) roles. The 2,000-kg UAV has a flight endurance of 24 hours and it carries a range of sensors and radars to make it all-weather. The ADE’s Nishant, which also has an ISR profile, is already in service but it only has a mission time of about four-five hours. 

Coming back to that analogy, drones are equalisers. A civilian can use a cheap handgun — a “Saturday night special”, while an army may use machine guns. Both are lethal, albeit in varying degrees. 

Militaries use high-tech drones equipped with massive armaments, autonomous AI systems and many sensors. Kids or non-state actors can use low-tech versions, carrying go-pro cameras and improvised explosive devices.