The decade we leave behind and ahead

It’s the end of a decade and the start of a new dawn, we hope. In the decade we leave behind — 2010-19 — the world, it would seem, has unravelled and come apart; our leaders are diminished; our economies are in trouble; and, there is conflict and strife everywhere we look. In this decade, we have realised that climate change is not in the distant future. It is happening and its impact will only grow. Every year in this decade has broken a new record — the highest heat and the most extreme weather. But it is not just about weather. It is about how people in the world view their present and think about their future.

We know that the young are restless — maybe more than in any past decade. In the richer world, young people are alarmed and insecure because they don’t know how they will survive this increasingly warming world. But I think what worries the young the most is that they feel powerless to make the difference — what is intrinsic and essential in their lives is what is indicted as the problem. How will they change this? The young worry about this. As they must.

In the poorer world, the young want opportunities. But the future prospects look bleak where they live. They want to move — from the village to the city, and from the city to another country. They are not satisfied with the plight of their parents. Even if they don’t have enough formal education (because governments have let them down), they are in tune with the present through their mobile telephony. They know about the bright lights; they know that the world is awaiting them. They want it, as they should. They also see the world around them crumbling — their farmer parents are not able to make both ends meet. The price and the weather risk of growing food increases each day, and each season increases the spiral of debt. They don’t want this. Their generation is also different in another way. They are not meek or submissive. They are hungry for more but also impatient.

It is, therefore, no surprise that in almost every part of the world things can go out of hand very quickly. A simple hike in fuel or university fees can topple governments, bring the army on the road, and cause shooting, burning, and looting. It’s a tinderbox world, on the boil. 

It’s also a divided world. Countries do not work together anymore. Every country thinks only of its own interests and nothing more. This is not to say that this was not the case before. But the pretence has gone — and this in an age of extraordinary inter-connectedness and inter-dependence has huge consequences. Let’s be clear that in the last three decades — 1990-2019 — growth has stumped the environment; even if local air has been cleaned, emissions have been externalised — leading to this existential threat of climate change. Our inheritors should remember this. 

There is other decadal learning as well — in our world, we are seeing unprecedented rates of internal migration and rural distress. I say this, not only because of the massive and often vile discourse over immigrants, but also because we know that our cities are growing in an illegal way and that this growth is massive and unmanageable. 

This is also where the circles close. The fact is that Delhi cannot breathe today — our air is foul and toxic. Our health is compromised. What we must understand is that a large part of the problem of pollution — some 30 per cent — comes from industries that spew emissions into the air. This industry cannot afford to move to a cleaner fuel, like natural gas, because of the expense. It will use the dirtiest of fuels — pet coke — and if it gets banned then coal or anything else that is cheap. But if we in Delhi want clean air, then we cannot export this industry to the next region. The airshed is the same. Air pollution is a great leveller, as I keep saying. We need to ensure that this industrial growth comes without discounting the cost of the environment. We need growth, so that it is inclusive — rural and urban; for the rich and the poor.

This should have also been the lesson for the rich in the rich world. Their governments have worked overtime in successive climate negotiations to erase the very idea of equity and justice. But the fact is it is also a common airshed. If the rich emitted in the past, the poor will emit in the future. We also share a common future and it does not look so good anymore in terms of climate impact. 

So, let’s please get real in this next decade. If not for our sake, then for the sake of the young, who will inherit this world — polarised, intensely unequal, and now greatly risked because of climate change. No more games. No more procrastination. The decade of the 2020s is the last chance we have to walk the talk. To make it right. Let’s not lose it. Not again.

The writer is at the Centre for Science and Environment

sunita@cseindia.org

Twitter: @sunitanar