The energy option

The expert committee on integrated energy policy, headed by Planning Commission Member Kirit Parikh, has produced a fascinating report on India's energy question. For the first time, a coherent attempt has been made at peering into the next 25 years, in a way that spans all aspects of energy""without being trapped in the narrow agenda of one ministry or the other.

The core proposal is that coal should be the mainstay of India's energy. Compared with a present consumption of 0.4 billion tonnes of coal a year, we could be somewhere between 1.1 and 2.5 billion tonnes in 2030. This naturally raises concerns about carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions which are linked to climate change. The report finds that CO2 emissions will rise from 1 billion tonnes at present, to 4-6 billion tonnes. At present, the US emits 5.5 billion tonnes of CO2 a year, so the Parikh plan envisages adding one United States to the planet, in terms of emissions, over the next 25 years. This is a scary vision. Preventing global warming requires first stabilising global CO2 emissions, and then reducing them. The Parikh plan should set off alarm bells worldwide, for it spells out what will happen if India proceeds on energy policy without concern for global warming.

India often takes the position that global warming is the problem of rich countries. This is incorrect; it will affect everyone. Our coastal cities will be destroyed, and vast areas of the Gangetic plains will be submerged, if ocean levels go up by just 10 metres. Our agriculture will be devastated by climate change. Our economic growth, and the task of becoming a rich country in the next 25 years, will be impossible if the world economy is derailed by global warming. It is fair to ask the OECD countries to pay for India's incremental costs of a low-carbon energy strategy. But a plan that envisages India racing ahead, producing CO2, will have to be abandoned in a few years when global agreements on CO2 are signed.

What is the way out? Nuclear energy is the only scalable source of energy which avoids CO2 emissions. The Parikh plan is based on the views of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE). Over the 1947-2030 period, the DAE is supposed to have figured out how to use our plentiful Thorium to generate essentially infinite nuclear energy. But along the way, the DAE plans insignificant nuclear generation. Nuclear energy is too important to be left to the nuclear establishment. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's nuclear deal with the US has thrown up the opportunity to get to a sound integrated energy policy. India's best path today is to import world-class reactors of perhaps 100,000 Mw over the next decade. These should become the mainstay of the emerging private electricity generation industry. In global negotiations on CO2 emissions, India should insist on a per capita cap, which will generate huge revenues for Indian citizens from selling excess permits. Energy security can be obtained by holding a 5-10 year inventory of fuel.

Any OECD lawmaker who tries to interfere with Indian import of nuclear reactors and fuel should be given a copy of the Parikh plan, so that the consequences of India staying on the DAE trajectory can be seen. The whole world has a stake in Indian nuclear energy policy being freed from the DAE.