The Hurriyat's new face

PLAIN POLITICS

It is raining good news from Kashmir. The ceasefire is holding impeccably. Between 26 November and 15 January, there have been just two infiltration attempts and two attempts by terrorists to exfiltrate (that is, return to Pakistan).

Both have been on the south of Pir Panjal, an area where there is relatively less snow. Levels of violence have dropped drastically. December 2003 represents the lowest levels of Pakistan-sponsored cross border terrorism ever in history.

In synergy, the first round of India-Pakistan talks after Agra, is to be held in February. In keeping with the spirit of cooperation, bowing to Pakistani wishes India is likely to agree to secretary-level talks rather than begin at the level of joint secretaries that the foreign office had advised.

The speeches made at Army Day (January 15) indicate the changing mindset. Defence Minister George Fernandes referred to the bravery and gallantry of the Indian soldier "" but the examples given of bravery and gallantry were in the context of UN peacekeeping operations.

The Chief of Army Staff, Gen N C Vij's speech spoke more about "renewed efforts at winning hearts and minds" and "more people-friendly projects" than congratulating soldiers at annihilating the enemy. In fact words like "war" and "enemy" did not figure once in Gen Vij's speech.

A dialogue at the political level is still far off. But the foreign office says it is the people-to-people pressure "" not just from India but much more from Pakistan "" that is propelling the whole process foward.

With violence not vitiating the political process, the government has announced that Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani will hold talks with the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), an umbrella organisation of groups that offers a range of political solutions for Kashmir, from plebiscite to ascertain the mind of the Kashmiris to outright secession from both India and Pakistan.

The current leader of the APHC is a learned and moderate Kashmiri Muslim named Moulvi Abbas Ansari. On him, hinge many of India's hopes and plans for Kashmir.

The surest sign that armed militant groups are getting restive at the thought of talks betwen Ansari and Advani to be held on January 22, is that the death threats have started coming in. The Jamat ul Mijahideen, which is for the merger of Kashmir with Pakistan has warned that "anybody who sells out Kashmir will be punished by death." The group has named Moulvi Abbas Ansari as the chief culprit.

So who is this Ansari, who might find himself presiding over the APHC during a historic period? The fortunes of the APHC were at an all-time low in 2003, following the successful Kashmir elections.

The APHC, already split on the issue of contesting the Kashmir elections, found itself riven after the elections, to the extent that when the Moulvi was elected to the job in July this year the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami stayed away from the meeting.

Since then Jamaat-e-Islami leader Syed Ali Geelani has been boycotting Hurriyat meetings. The split in the Hurriyat means a rise in unorganised militant violence in Kashmir. So the beginning of India-Pakistan talks has come at a time when the Hurriyat is seeking to redefine itself and its political role in Kashmir. And Moulvi Abbas Ansari is the man heading the Hurriyat at this historic moment.

Ansari's entry into politics was through personal association with National Conference founder Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah. The Moulvi heads a Shia religious group, the Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (Unity of Muslims) which seeks independence for Kashmir.

This doesn't mean the Moulvi is for accession toPakistan. He and his organisation are part of that faction of the APHC (along with Yasin Malik of the JKLF, Mirwaiz Omar Farooq of the Awami Action Committee and Abdul Gani Bhat of the Muslim Conference) which seeks Azaadi for Kashmir.

Ansari is a moderate Muslim and is competely opposed to imposition of Sharia laws like hejab (veil) for women that some militants groups have sought to impose on Kashmir.

The Moulvi has lived and studied in Iraq. That experience has apparently underscored his political convictions. Iraq, a Shia majority, has been ruled by a Sunni minority.

In essence that is not different from the experience of Kashmiri Muslims, a majority in Kashmir, being ruled by New Delhi's Hindu-majority government, whether it is the Congress or the BJP. The Moulvi has won hearts in North Block by his vocal opposition to mediation by a third country, though he has been prone to say one thing in Srinagar and another in Delhi.

The Moulvi has been a politician long enough to understand that unless he manages to bring together as many groups to talk to L K Advani as possible, his credibility could be questioned both in Srinagar and in New Delhi.

This is the first time in more than 10 years that New Delhi is embarking on a political dialogue with Hurriyat overlooking their many transgressions "" attending meetings of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) and meeting visiting Pakistani ministers and high commissioners openly, to cite just two.

But with the Hurriyat bristling with contradictions, Ansari is going to have his job cut out for him, trying to bring all the factions together and selling them to the Government of India. Already Yasin Malik (JKLF) and Shabbir Shah (the Democratic Freedom Party) have begun demurring on the committment to dialogue.

The key to normalisation (rather than resolution) of the Kashmir issue is in the hands of North Block and Moulvi Abbas Ansari, and their diplomatic skills. The silence of the guns is just a shaky beginning. Moulvi Abbas Ansari could play a role as important as Sheikh Abdullah if he manages to steer the dialogue process to fruition without any hitches.