The new election paradigm

Welfarism is gaining ground among voters

The performances of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the recent Assembly polls point to a compelling new dynamic among the electorate that transcends the standard template of caste and religious identities to welfarist gains. This much was amply clear from AAP’s stunning sweep of Punjab, felling stalwarts such as former chief minister Amarinder Singh, the Shiromani Akali Dal’s Badal father-and-son duo, and incumbent Congress Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi in both the seats he contested. AAP’s campaign focused on its “Delhi model” of governance, where such incentives as heavily subsidised water and electricity, creating workable health and educational infrastructure, and now the home delivery of rations, have given it an incumbent advantage in its home state of Delhi.

The BJP’s strong showing in Uttar Pradesh, delivering an unprecedented second term for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, rests on similar foundations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vigorous campaigning in the state, a traditional bellwether for parliamentary polls, has been built on a programme of merging majoritarianism with welfare programmes to deliver a powerful message. His government’s extensive national-level programmes over the past seven years —from toilet building, to subsidised cooking gas, rural electrification, tap water connectivity, money in farmers’ bank accounts, and free grain distribution during the pandemic — have resonated strongly with voters on a personal level in one of India’s poorest states. Likewise, Mr Adityanath’s restoration of law and order in UP, however questionable the method, has proved extremely popular, especially with women voters. These factors, which intensify the touchpoints between the government and the electorate, have been persuasive enough for voters to overlook its mishandling of the migrant crisis of 2020 and the Covid-19 second wave. They also serve to cauterise the pain of a slowing national economy and high unemployment.
 

Though Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party has made respectable gains in this election, its founding ideology, predicated on narrow caste identities, has limited the scope for an alternative broad-based narrative. The same factor explains the mounting irrelevance of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party. The Trinamool Congress’ performance in West Bengal in 2021 and that of AAP in Punjab suggest it is possible to credibly challenge the might of the wealthy ruling party on a secular welfarist platform, as Jayalalithaa did in Tamil Nadu and Nitish Kumar in Bihar. But AAP and the Trinamool’s fortunes in Uttarakhand and Goa, respectively, point to the need to build out their local bases into national organisations. These processes take time and money. That leaves the Congress party as the only major contender to the BJP at the national level. But its latest performance only confirms its precipitous decline and underlines the urgent need for a leadership change from the Gandhi family. Priyanka Gandhi’s handling of UP has all but helped wipe out the party in the state as has the Gandhi siblings’ inept management of intra-party rivalry in Punjab. The choice of Mr Channi as Punjab chief minister because of his Dalit credentials is but one indication of the poor understanding of the electorate.

Finally, though welfarism may be a vote catcher, it rests on the ability of the government to pay the bills. So far, no regime has shown how to bridge this gap without faster growth. This may be the bigger challenge as more and more parties discover its vote-winning virtues.