The post-election map

Congress chastened, BJP wins, and a more federal polity

The results of the Assembly elections in four large states and Puducherry will certainly have a major effect on national politics and on the course of lawmaking in New Delhi. In two of the four states, Assam and Kerala, the Congress was a major player. In two others, it was the junior partner in a coalition. It lost all four big state elections. Assam and Kerala were two of the only three big states left with the Congress; it has now lost those two. In West Bengal, its decision to partner with the Left Front now appears to have been perhaps a miscalculation - in the Trinamool Congress' sweeping victory there, the Left actually did worse than the Congress, which increased its seats tally and vote share, but that was hardly any consolation. And its failure to reclaim Tamil Nadu in partnership with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - this is after all a state that tends to alternate between alliances - shows it has an uphill political task ahead. In 2017, the Congress will face elections in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Gujarat. In Punjab, what should have been an easy challenge to an unpopular incumbent is complicated by the presence of the Aam Aadmi Party, which may pick up anti-Akali Dal votes. In UP, the party still has no machinery on the ground and in Uttarakhand, it is facing internal problems. Gujarat may ironically be its best hope - but there the Bharatiya Janata Party has dominated power for very long. Nor can any renewal of the party be expected, given that a resurgence of leadership is not likely. The BJP leadership's stated aim of a "Congress-mukt Bharat" seems closer than ever.

Indeed, the BJP's bid to supplant the Congress as India's premier national party has received a boost. With Assam in its column now, and an increase in vote share in both Kerala and West Bengal, it has shown it is competitive in areas where it previously was not. Indeed, the BJP made its debut in Kerala winning a seat and improved its seats tally in West Bengal to three. After the routs in Delhi and Bihar, this is clearly a political comeback for the party. It seems to have learnt the right lessons from those defeats - it focused on local leadership, and did not waste political capital by risking overexposure to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was not used as the chief campaigner. There are, nevertheless, challenges in its future. The decline of the Congress will also empower strong regional forces that are not going away soon. The Left in Kerala, J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal might all confront the BJP-led Centre in different ways over time. Hopefully Mr Modi's stated commitment to "co-operative federalism" will survive the test of these strong regional leaders, together with Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Naveen Patnaik in Odisha and Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi. Certainly, India looks like a more dynamic federal polity today.

The implications for central politics and policy making are vast. It is true that the verdict will not immediately make things easier for the government in the Rajya Sabha, as its composition is not set to change swiftly. However, Ms Banerjee did emphasise in post-results interviews that her party would support some proposed legislation - she specifically mentioned the goods and services tax. But it is not clear if that would improve the GST's chances of passing in the monsoon session of Parliament. The common takeaway from the four results in terms of policy analysis is that decisive leadership and delivering infrastructure like roads, electricity and housing yield rich political dividends. But a development focus must be tempered, for political gains, with welfare measures. In many states, freebies continue to work electorally, and ensure re-election.