Ending a brief spell of pro-incumbency electoral outcomes (Lok Sabha and state Assembly elections in 2009 and Bihar in 2010), the Indian voter returned to the long-standing anti-incumbency posture in four out of the five state Assembly elections last week. For over two decades, the Left Front in West Bengal boasted that it was the only political formation that bucked the national trend. When Bengal finally decided to catch up with the rest of India, the political tsunami that hit the state proved devastating for the Left Front. That Assam stood apart is a tribute to the Tarun Gogoi government and was perhaps also a gift from the people of the state to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who has remained loyal to Assam as a member of Parliament. The results of last week’s elections reinforce a common message coming from the elections in the past few years that “regional” or state-level leadership can play a significant role in electoral outcomes. In Bihar last year, the contest was between incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and a nebulous opposition. The leader who stood tall won the election. He mimicked the 2009 performance of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy in Andhra Pradesh and Naveen Patnaik in Orissa, Delhi’s Sheila Dikshit and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh in 2008, and Narendra Modi and Mayawati in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh respectively in 2007. Both Mamata Banerjee and J Jayalalithaa offered strong leadership, as did Mr Gogoi, and led their party to victory. Even in Puducherry, it was the leadership that mattered, with Rangasamy personifying anti-incumbency, much like a dark horse. In Kerala, anti-incumbency was blunted by V S Achuthanandan’s strong personality, which overpowered the amorphous Congress party leadership.
Elections at the state level have been “presidential” for a while and whenever “strong” leaders have offered opposition to strong incumbents, they have won (think of NTR in Andhra Pradesh) — and national political parties like the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party must come to terms with this fact. One immediate lesson for the Congress party is that as it prepares to challenge Ms Mayawati in Lucknow, it needs a strong leader. Perhaps Congress party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi should take on that mantle and offer himself as a potential chief ministerial candidate for Uttar Pradesh. Given the choice between Ms Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Rajnath Singh and Mr Gandhi, most voters in Uttar Pradesh are likely to vote Mr Gandhi into office! So he should work in Lucknow before aiming for Delhi.
While this week will be devoted to celebrations, post-mortem and hard bargaining for jobs in Kolkata, Chennai and other state capitals, both Ms Banerjee and Ms Jayalalithaa must focus on improving governance in their respective states. With 2014 three years away, they should not get distracted by national politics. Their work is at home. So they must neither disappoint their voters nor allow their impressive victory to let the verdict go to waste. West Bengal needs a lot of hard work and fresh thinking to regain its elan. Ms Banerjee should focus on that and skilfully use the good talent she has attracted into politics, without resorting to populism and whimsical politics. Ms Jayalalithaa has a unique opportunity to become the Narendra Modi of Tamil Nadu — a development-oriented chief minister who can strengthen the state’s industrial base, modernise infrastructure and education and banish poverty and illiteracy. It is doable. And she must do it.