The Son sets on the Congress

CALLING THE BLUFF

If one major forecast is right, then the rule is that you should double up "" even if you are slightly wrong on the next, it is worth the risk. Think of what can happen if you are right!

In September 1999, I had offered a model of election forecasting that was devoid of any information gleaned from 'messy' opinion polls. This model was based exclusively on the pattern of four variables "" whether the party was incumbent or not, and the differences in the rates of growth of income (GDP), inflation and exchange rate depreciation.

The differences have to do with what happened in the previous election. Based on this model, I had forecast that the much touted ex-post model of anti-incumbency was wrong; that the NDA would easily win the election and that the Congress per se would obtain only 116 seats.

Fast forward to the situation and model, today. Economic growth is higher by about 2.5 per cent, inflation is lower by about 1.5 per cent, and the exchange rate, rather than depreciating, is on an appreciating trend "" up by about 8 per cent in the last one year, and uncannily, the same nominal value, Rs 43.6/$, as that observed at the time of the last general election in September 1999.

One does not need this or any other model's parameters to determine the fact that the Indian polity is not just better off, but significantly better off, since 1999. However, for forecasts, one needs a model, and it is flashing that there is a reasonable probability of the Congress slip-sliding away into oblivion.

While there have been several opinion polls, none of them (to my knowledge) report on Congress's vote share. The mean prediction of several 'economics + election' models is for the Congress share of the national vote to go even below the historic low of 25.8 per cent observed in 1998.

Achievable target "" about 24 per cent, or a 4 percentage point decline from the 28.3 per cent voteshare observed in 1999. Likely Congress seats "" less than 100, with a mean forecast of 83 (last election "" 114).

In the article 'Set your clocks "" it is election time' (Business Standard, January 10, 2004) and long before the first opinion poll announced that Congress was in trouble ("the Congress would hurtle to a seat total of less than a 100"), I had facetiously suggested that maybe what the Congress should do is to draft the dynasty youngsters Priyanka and Rahul.

Little did I realise that the Congress would do exactly that. But by choosing to not stand for election, Priyanka is ensuring that people will credit her with intelligence, something of a rare commodity within the Congress party.

I believe the fact that Rahul Gandhi is going to run for elections (albeit from a back-pocket constituency) is political suicide on the part of the Congress party. It is not my case that Rahul will lose "" it is my case that with his winning, the Congress party will hurtle into oblivion.

What India needs is an effective opposition "" the worst case scenario is for India to be dominated by one-party, as it was dominated by the Congress till the late Seventies. If Gandhi Jr. Jr. wants to really "serve" the nation (as politicians euphemistically call their ride to power and fiefdom) he should announce that he is slipping away from active politics and let one of the many other talented individuals in the party lead it to possible glory.

Sometime back, my good friend and co-columnist, TCA Srinivasa-Raghavan, had indicated that after the hefty 2004 defeat, the Congress will reinvent itself. I was convinced by his analysis and had prepared a suitable draft with the title: 'The Congress is dead; long live the Congress'.

That draft is now junked, and TCA is likely to be gloriously wrong. Why? Because the Congress has already sent signals that unlike normal political parties (the Labour party in England, the Democratic party in the US), it is not going to learn from bad experience.

It has already identified the fault lines "" the fault, dear Sita, is not with the Congress but with the illiberal Indian public which will not vote a "foreigner" as Prime Minister. That there might be a different interpretation to the forthcoming Congress debacle was provided by Shekhar Gupta's wonderful interview of Sonia Gandhi, broadcast on NDTV.

There is a saying (by some American president I believe) that it is better to be quiet, and leave people in doubt, than to open your mouth, and remove all doubt.

So Congress lost the 2004 election because of the unfortunate reality of the illiberal Indian. As Ms Sonia Gandhi resigns, she adds that she remains committed to leading India towards the shining star, and that she has heard the will of the people (the people of Amethi is all of India, you see) and that therefore she is resigning in favour of the true Indian and leader, Mr Rahul Gandhi.

By that speech (you will hear it soon), Ms Gandhi would have sealed the coffin. It is hard to imagine how any individual with even a sliver of self-respect will take this insult to the collective intelligence of the Indian public, or even the residual intelligence of the Congress party.

This act of anointing the rightful King will kill any ambition, and even more importantly, any hope. What does an intelligent person in the Congress party do when faced with this reality "" bolt; what does the ineffective and the ineffectual do "" right, on, little boy, we will win the next election under your esteemed leadership, intelligence, and wisdom.

It has never gotten worse than this, ever, anywhere. Please, Rahul, do not let it happen to shining people within your own party. And if you do see the light, you will also extend the preservation of the image of Nehru.

If the Congress hurtles towards a fast political death, it will not be long before people start questioning the various assumed, taken for granted contributions of Nehru (and your grandmother Indira Gandhi) towards India's political and economic development.

There is one other important goal Rahul will achieve by this intelligent act. The Congress baiters will be forced to now question the ruling coalition for its wrong actions. Today, when we do so, we are confronted with the equivalent of the response "If you don't like it here, you can always leave" i.e. "If you don't like us, you can always vote for the Congress".

ssbhalla@oxusresearch.com

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