"There is a divinity that shapes our ends..."

Luck and coincidence exist. It is wrong to imagine design when there is only adaptation and improvisation and to attribute every success to some deliberate plan.

A few readers have sought comment on luck in the success formula of a leader, an interesting and controversial subject. The title is of this article is derived from Hamlet. Conflicts were causing Hamlet to lose sleep when he uttered these words to Horatio. Thus he acknowledged that many things were out of his control and that god would determine destinies.  

When positive things happen, a leader or the sycophants attribute it to the leader’s foresight and planning. When things go wrong, the same folk blame external factors. When we experience lack of control of events, we invoke god, term it coincidence, or luck — good or bad. It is not true that success in a business must be derived from a shaping vision or relentless execution. Doing so would be to imagine design when there was only adaptation and improvisation.

The same holds true for an individual’s life. We are too easily misled by biographies of great people who claim to have meticulously planned their ascent. The origins of success are much too subtle and complex. Life does not follow a course and we change in many ways as we grow.

Here are some coincidences and unexpected outcomes (Luck, Ed Smith, Bloomsbury, 2012):
 

Berlin street accident : On August 22, 1931, John Scott-Ellis, a young Englishman in Munich, drove up Ludwigstrasse, took a right turn into Briennerstrasse, and unknowingly knocked down a pedestrian. Scott Ellis felt relieved as the man picked himself up and walked away. Three years later, Scott-Ellis, now 21 years of age, sat at the box office at Residentztheater. In the adjacent box sat the same man he had knocked down. The man recalled the incident but was “quite charming for those few moments”. Later Scott-Ellis realised that he had knocked down Adolf Hitler. What might the world have been if Scott-Ellis had killed that pedestrian!

Manhattan street accident: Just four months after the Berlin accident, on December 13, 1931, an English politician was knocked down on New York’s Fifth Avenue. The car was driving at 35 mph, a speed enough to kill him. The veteran MP was 57 years of age and was dragged several yards before being flung to one side. Thereafter, he was rushed to Lenox Hill Hospital. Winston Churchill survived. What would have happened to the Second World War if Churchill had died in that Manhattan accident!

Indian independence date: How was the actual date, August 15, determined? Was it astrology or plain fortuitous? Here is the story, as narrated in historian Narayani Basu’s book, V P Menon.

By June 3, 1947, a plan was somewhat agreed on by Indian politicians, though not the implementation date, and Clement Atlee announced the plan in the British House of Commons. Without any loss of time, Mountbatten drove to All India Radio to join Nehru, Jinnah and Baldev Singh to announce it to the nation. “We are little men, serving great causes,” said Nehru. In his cut-glass English accent, Jinnah ended his short speech with “Pakistan zindabad”.

On the next day, Mountbatten held a 45-minute press conference, answering many questions. One reporter asked, “How long will His Excellency stay as the Excellency?” Mountbatten breezily replied, “That is a most embarrassing question; I think the transfer could be around 15th August.” This unintended announcement sealed the date. “I can’t believe it,” exclaimed a shocked Nehru. Mountbatten’s faux pas gave India its independence date as August 15.

Berlin Wall: After the Second World War, Germany was carved out between the Soviets and the other Allies. Although Berlin was demarcated in 1945, 16 years later, measures were introduced to confine East Germans through separation, using part-barbed wire and part-walls. By 1989, the Wall was operational with 302 watch towers.

Due to political changes in Soviet Union, by 1989, there was an in-principle agreement to dismantle the Wall and it was announced on November 9, 1989, by East German spokesman, Günter Schabowski. When asked about the timing, Schabowski replied “immediately”. That same evening crowds surged, making it impossible to regulate movement. The wall fell on November 9, 1989, without anyone having specifically planned that date.

The inclusion of luck in modern day discourse may be considered unusual. The fact is, we believe in it in one sense, and we dismiss it in another sense. Accepting the existence of luck is perceived as a sign of weakness in our turbulent times. Yet the complete denial of luck or coincidence in leadership success/failure seems misplaced.

The author is a corporate adviser and distinguished professor of IIT Kharagpur. He was Director of Tata Sons and Vice-Chairman of Hindustan Unilever

rgopal@themindworks.me