Time for bold moves to augment gas supplies

In the aftermath of the recently-held Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) summit meeting in Islamabad, strong hints have emerged about some forward movement on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. Media reports emanating from Pakistan (Dawn, March 3, 2017) suggest that Pakistan has begun conducting technical surveys that would facilitate the construction of their section of the pipeline. Apart from enabling the supply of much-needed natural gas to energy-scarce countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, this pipeline project, it was thought, would also facilitate economic and political integration among the three South Asian countries.  

After a slow start, the momentum on the pipeline’s construction seems to be making some headway. Pakistan’s sudden eagerness to resume work associated with the pipeline comes from the fact that the much-hyped Iran-Pakistan bilateral gas pipeline is on the verge of receiving a quiet burial and Pakistan is running short of viable import options to meet its future demand. 

But little does Pakistan realise that the TAPI pipeline project’s success is contingent upon the way in which it conducts its bilateral relations with other stakeholders in the project rather than mere progress on the technical front. The project, given its numerous challenges, would require a great deal of political sagacity from all sides. It will also entail constant interaction between all stakeholders to resolve tactical-level impediments during the construction and operationalisation phase. At the moment none of this seems to be working. The project’s two largest stakeholders — India and Pakistan — have for the better part of the past year refrained from engaging in dialogue.  

It looks difficult for India to carry forward dialogue on projects of a commercial nature with Pakistan in the absence of any forward movement at the political level. Despite several requests by India, Pakistan has continued to stonewall Indian requests to act against terrorist groups and their leaders operating from its territory. 

Perhaps as a result of Pakistan’s intransigence, it was reported in The Hindu on July 12, 2015 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had gone to the extent of proposing a land-sea option for importing gas from Turkmenistan. This proposal was perhaps indicative of the mood then prevalent in India on the TAPI pipeline project and very clearly suggested that India had begun exploring alternative options to the over-land route from Turkmenistan. The idea, as this writer had argued in an article for the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi on August 27, 2015, was to build a pipeline from Turkmenistan's gas fields and transport the natural gas through western Afghanistan and into Iran, where the piped gas would be converted into liquefied form and shipped in LNG tankers to Indian ports and elsewhere. The strength of this proposal was that it enabled Turkmenistan to send its resources to India unhindered.

What perhaps prevented New Delhi from taking this proposal forward was the faint hope that Pakistan would change its posture on sponsoring cross-border terrorism in the coming months. But given Pakistan's intransigence on the issue of addressing India's concerns, the latter must at this juncture seriously consider carrying its proposal of a land-sea natural gas transportation system into action. 

However, pursuing this option will throw up diplomatic challenges for India. For one thing, it must be able to present a convincing case to the Turkmen leadership for abandoning the overland route and starting afresh. Second, India would have to convince Iran to permit Turkmen gas to be transported through its territory. Since Iran and Turkmenistan were recently engaged in a bitter gas pricing dispute, as reported by Reuters on January 3 this year, this will be an onerous task for India. 

On its part, Afghanistan may agree to such a proposal, considering that it would continue to receive transit fees. But what it may not appreciate is the fact that it will have to put in extra efforts, in addition to spending more money on building a domestic pipeline network to reroute gas flowing from Turkmenistan, to demand centres in different parts of Afghanistan. The proposed TAPI pipeline travels through the length and breadth of Afghanistan, connecting the north-western and south-western and southern parts of the country. If a land-sea energy transportation option is pursued, then only north-western and south-western Afghanistan would have access to Turkmen gas and the former would have to spend additional resources to build an internal pipeline network connecting the demand centres in the rest of the country.

It is time for India’s energy diplomacy to pursue quick and bold manoeuvres to bring to fruition the land-sea option for importing Turkmen gas. Unlike the overland TAPI pipeline project, this would need India to assume a leadership role to ensure that the land-sea energy transportation corridor is converted into reality in a time-bound manner. India would also have to be willing to commit substantial resources at least initially to develop this alternative route, before other stakeholders start pitching in. Critics have held the opinion that cross-border pipeline projects have moved slowly in South Asia. But, in the context of the TAPI pipeline, the delay in starting the project is possibly a blessing, as it enables the countries involved to revisit the project to ensure its redundancy.  
 

The writer is a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai