Ukraine's hidden weapon

The biggest game changer in the Ukraine War has been a weapon system that combines First World War (1914-18) performance with 21st century technology. The TB2 drone from the Turkish company Baykar is now being celebrated in Ukrainian songs as the Bayraktar.

This is a propeller-driven unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). It weighs just 700 kg fully loaded. It has a maximum speed of 220 kmph and a maximum altitude of 7,500 metres. It carries just 70-80 litres of petrol, and a munitions payload of only 150 kgs. The iconic SE5 biplane, which was the best British fighter of 1916-1918, was faster and carried heavier payloads. 

But the slow, lightly armed Bayraktar has effectively disrupted Russia’s invasion. It has knocked out tanks, armoured personnel carriers, surface-to-air (SAM) missile batteries and even warships. It has destroyed oil depots and ammunition dumps deep in Russian-controlled territory.

The 21st century aspects of the system are as follows. The UAV itself carries over 40 onboard computers, providing high-precision communication, navigation and fire-control ability. It’s controlled from a ground station, a portable control and communications hub managed by humans.

It has a tiny radar signature and can be carried on trucks. The UAV can stay aloft for 24 hours, cruising at 120 kmph with a range of 4,000 km on that tiny fuel tank. (It needs to stay within 300 km of that mobile ground control to maintain smooth communications). Users receive regular software and hardware updates from Baykar.

The munitions are precision laser-guided missiles and rockets, which can change trajectory in mid-flight and hit small targets (like individual humans) with extreme accuracy from a distance. The UAV itself is cheap. Roughly speaking, it costs maybe $1 million per UAV. Compare that to the USAF’s Reaper, a much larger UAV that costs $20 million. However, the Baykar control platform is much more expensive than the UAVs. Ukraine reportedly pays around $70 million for each platform plus a set of 6 UAVs.

Inventor-developer Selçuk Bayraktar has degrees from the University of Pennsylvania and MIT, and a Phd from the Georgia Institute of Technology. He is married to the president’s daughter, Sümeyye Erdoğan, which makes him a key power centre in Turkey’s complicated politics. Baykar is a family firm, founded by Bayraktar senior. It is now run by Selçuk and his brothers. Mother Canan was a programmer with IBM, and Bayraktar says that contributed to his skillset.

Turkey has indigenised its military-industrial complex to withstand possible sanctions. Baykar claims 93 per cent of TB2 components are sourced within Turkey, and the company has invested copiously to upgrade software and communications, learning from every battlefield experience. Electronic counter-measures, for example, are always evolving since UAVs work off radio-waves and jamming/ counter-jamming is a must.

The TB2 was blooded circa 2015-16 in counter-insurgency campaigns against the Kurds. It was used to target individuals and guerrillas hiding in the mountains. It was also a key factor in Azerbaijan’s decisive victory in its 2020 war with Armenia. There are horrifically impressive videos released by the Azeris, documenting drones wiping out Armenia’s armour, and infantry dug into trenches.

Another TB2 tactic is to fly a swarm to target anti-aircraft batteries. If a SAM knocks down one drone, the battery’s position is revealed and the remaining UAVs will knock out the battery. In Libya, they knocked out at least nine Russian Pantsir AA batteries, losing 12 drones in the process.

The UAV also did an effective job against ISIS in Syria and it is used by Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, who is of course, a key Russian ally.  But despite flying in exercises against TB2s, Russia’s air force has not yet succeeded in blunting this weapon. The next generation— the TB3— will be capable of being launched and retrieved from boats. Baykar claims lots of interest from sundry governments. 

Ukraine is an ideal tank country—the largest armoured battles ever were fought across its rolling terrain during the Second World War. Drawing on the Red Army’s experiences in 1942-44, the Russians must have assumed big armoured thrusts would win the day. But the TB2 has led to a paradigm shift and military theorists will now have to take these new weapons systems into account.