However, the sectoral numbers do not indicate that anything like this is happening. A substantial contribution to the acceleration came from agriculture, which is estimated to have grown by 4.6 per cent this year, compared to a much lower 1.4 per cent last year. In contrast, both mining and manufacturing declined during the year, the former continuing its streak for a second successive year, while the latter swung from 1.1 per cent growth last year to -0.2 per cent in the current one. The only other component of GDP to have seen a significant acceleration over last year was community, social and personal services, which encompass the public sector. Doubts about any signs of recovery are reinforced by the investment numbers. Gross fixed capital formation declined from 33.9 per cent of GDP to 32.5 per cent, and in actual resource terms grew by a measly 0.2 per cent. Overall, agriculture may provide an occasional boost, but the only indicator of sustainable growth in this equation is the investment component and that is looking more and more shaky.
Endless repetition does not make the message any less significant. The economy is not going to recover because people in authority wish it would. Growth has slowed because several structural constraints manifested themselves and the government has done very little to deal with them. Where it has made efforts, it has become embroiled in corruption scandals precipitated by flawed processes. Consequently, unlike in a conventional business cycle dynamic, in which certain self-correcting forces cause the economy to recover, India's recovery at this point is almost entirely in the hands of the policymakers taking meaningful action to address those constraints and, more so, in an ethical and transparent way. Until this process is set in motion, just like it was in 1991, the economy could find itself muddling along for a while at current rates of growth and inflation, while weakening fiscal and current account situations increase its vulnerability.