George W Bush, despite fighting a burgeoning fiscal deficit, is slated to win the presidential elections
As this column has reiterated repeatedly, the world now lives in an American Imperium. Its domestic politics are of more than just a passing interest for the rest of the world.
With a presidential election year looming, what do the tea leaves augur for the Imperial metropole?
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With the US seemingly bogged down in Iraq, a burgeoning fiscal deficit, and a pale but jobless economic recovery from the recent recession, it would seem that President Bush who looked invincible just a few months ago appears to be in trouble. But is he?
My guess would be that by the time of the election, the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus applied during the last few years, and still continuing, will lead to a rise in output and employment.
Bush is unlikely to be defeated for the economic reasons which sank his father. It is the financial and human costs of the reconstruction of Iraq which are the unpredictable elements.
Clearly, the leading Democratic contender Howard Dean seems to think so. He is running unashamedly as the anti-war candidate. So what is likely to be the size of the