Why governments miscalculate

The Modi government is rightly being crucified by critics and supporters alike for having miscalculated so terribly on the Covid front. To misquote that horrible man, Winston Churchill, never have so few been cursed so roundly by so many.

But without mitigating the government’s errors of omission and commission, which are galore, a quick survey of history shows that a combination of governmental/bureaucratic stupidity, intelligence failure and simple arrogance has always led to monumental disasters. These can happen either singly or in combination. But when all three come together, as they have now, what you get is total devastation.

Then only luck can retrieve the situation. But luck, like love, can be scarce.

Let me recall, for your weekend reading pleasure, some of the biggest mistakes that governments have made, both in India and abroad.

Let’s not go before 1800 because space here doesn’t permit it. Suffice it to remind you only of the 1789 French Revolution where the King misread the situation completely and was eventually beheaded.

The same thing happened to Tsar Nicholas II also. In each case it was the triple whammy — stupidity, arrogance and intelligence failure.

The West

The next time this happened was also in France when Napoleon ignored all warnings and, triumphant after his many military victories, decided to invade Russia. Everyone knows how that ended — in a complete and brutal rout. France went into a tailspin after that. It has never really recovered.

In 1914, the British, by then the overwhelming military and economic power, thought the war with Germany would be over in four months — the ‘home by Christmas’ boast. It went on for four years and weakened Britain permanently, in every respect.

You’d think some lessons would have been learnt but no such luck. In 1940, the French and the British both miscalculated, thereby leading to the German invasion of France and the Dunkirk debacle where 300,000 British troops got trapped. It was plain luck that saved them.

Then the same thing happened to America in December 1941. It had thought it could, and would, never be attacked. It was simply too far from everywhere, the Americans thought. But the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbour in Hawaii put paid to that confidence and arrogance. Ironically, the Japanese had made the same mistakes.

Imitation game

Arrogant leaders copy other arrogant leaders, and in June 1942, Hitler invaded Russia. It was as if he had never been told about Napoleon’s wonderful experiences there.

That, too, ended badly. In the end, Germany was divided into two parts when it lost the war. As the Pakistanis will tell you, there is no worse humiliation.

Then there was the Vietnam war and Iraq war. Together, and over thirty 40 years, these two wars have made America lose its sense of national purpose. As a result, China is now probing at its defences.

And I am willing to bet that it, too, has hugely over-reached with this virus thing, on a scale comparable to Napoleon and Hitler’s Russia mistakes.

No lessons learnt

India has not been an exception to this tendency. Our ‘Forward Policy’ on the China border where we set up posts on disputed land led China to attack us in 1962. It was a most demoralising defeat.

The next big mistake was the Emergency of 1975. It has had the most perverse consequence imaginable. The Executive has lost a lot of ground to Parliament and the Judiciary, thereby weakening its ability to execute.

And now we have this catastrophic virus. The government’s handling of it meets all three criteria I listed at the beginning: governmental and bureaucratic stupidity, intelligence failure and simple arrogance.

It’s impossible to say why this happens over time and across space. But one thing is clear: given the pattern, it will keep happening.