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Worries of the lesser populated

Asia File

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Barun Roy New Delhi
Last Updated : Jun 14 2013 | 2:39 PM IST
 
They don't say so openly though. To be fair, they are actually encouraging what looks like a national debate on population issues. Are there too many people already, or too little? Should the populations be allowed to grow, or shouldn't they?

 
As the debate goes on, however, the underlying preferences of the two nations are becoming increasingly clear. Both would like to keep their populations small because, they argue, quite cleverly, bigger numbers would harm their environment.

 
One has to admit, on the face of it, it's a better argument than their overtly racist immigration policies of the past. But is it a valid argument?

 
Look at Australia: just 19 million people in a country that's almost as big as mainland USA and is considered a continent. If we cut out the coasts, where almost all these people live, we are left with a land, over 2,500 miles across from east to west, that's virtually uninhabited: only one person, even less, on every square kilometre of territory.

 
Or take Western Australia, which alone spreads over more than one-third of Australia's land surface. Its population? No more than 1.8 million. You guess out the density.

 
Since when did this vast stretch of practically uninhabited land become environmentally fragile? How much effort has been made to make the wilderness habitable, or even serviceable? There are other inhospitable terrains in the world that have been transformed by human need and endeavour.

 
Yet many in Australia think the country may already be overpopulated or is rapidly approaching that point. While some businessmen have argued that a population level of 50 million to 60 million would indeed be good for the economy, there are people who say they wouldn't mind even reducing the current population in order to preserve present lifestyles and personal freedoms.

 
But Australia will soon have to make a choice. The birth rate has fallen from an average 3.6 children in 1961 to 1.75 in 1999, and, as the "baby boom" generation ages, the population will become increasingly welfare-dependent.

 
The economy won't be able to cope with this trend unless it has more young people in the workforce to support and expand it. In Australia's case, these young people can only come from other countries. Canberra needs a bold immigration policy. It can't go far with a net immigration rate of only 75,000 persons a year.

 
New Zealand faces a similar population conundrum. Its four million people are happily nestled in a country about the size of the US state of Colorado "" a meagre 32 persons per square mile "" but the population is ageing, too, and rapidly.

 
There are those who believe the country needs a fresh injection of immigrants to keep the economy going and cope with emerging social problems. Growing youth suicides and unemployment and falling incomes of families with children are bothering a lot of people.

 
But there are also others who think any increase in immigration will undermine their culture and way of life. It's the end of British New Zealand that they fear.

 
Demographers say, if the influx of Pacific islanders and Asians continues, the British group will become a minority by 2050 and Europeans will cease to be the majority in the country's workforce even earlier. Asians, in particular, will account for 17.2 per cent of the population by then.

 
Population worry of a different kind is troubling another Asian country, Mongolia. It's half as big as India and has only 2.7 million people. Yet, in the capital city of Ulan Baataar, overcrowding is a problem and the number of homeless people is growing.

 
Mongolia doesn't have an official population policy. The country is very rich in natural resources "" oil, coal, copper, molybdenum, tungsten, phosphates, tin, nickel, zinc, wolfram, fluorspar, gold, silver, iron and phosphate "" but there simply aren't enough people to exploit them.

 
It has embraced a free-market economic system, but the population base is too thin to support the development of a private sector. There has been a sharp decline in birth rates in recent years and the rate of population growth is slow (1.5 per cent).

 
Immigration is zero and internal migration to cities is high because population settlements in the rest of the country aren't significant enough to act as a counterbalance.

 
Mongolia is one country that needs a sustained population increase to maintain national identity and strengthen itself as a nation. The economy can't grow on empty desert plains and grassy steppes, in a land that has no permanent crops and little reason to build even paved roads.

 
But, in the government's economic strategy, there's no reflection yet of this reality.

 

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Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper

First Published: Sep 05 2003 | 12:00 AM IST

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