Yediyurappa's time has come... again

But one thing is certain: he will head a government that will be in a state of permanent flux and uncertainty

Bookanakere Siddalingappa Yediyur-appa (he changed the spelling of his last name on astrological advice) is set to become chief minister of Karnataka for a fourth time. He has never been able to complete a full term as CM and this time might be no different. 

Here’s why.

First, the factual configuration of the Karnataka Assembly. Out of 225 members (224 elected and one nominated), there is one independent MLA, one from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and one from the Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP).

These three are H Nagesh from Mulbagal, N Mahesh from Kollegal and R Shankar from Ranebennur. All three are opposed to HD Kumaraswamy (HDK) and have been disqualified by the Speaker: which means they cannot contest the by elections. For all intents and purposes they have been knocked out of the race. This also means that till the by elections take place, the effective strength of the assembly is down by three to 222 and the halfway mark in 112.

After the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP had 105 MLAs; the Congress 78; the Janata Dal Secular 37. BJP tried to form a government, failed and Congress and JDS cobbled together a precarious majority. The signs of trouble were clear from day 1. Yeddyurappa was clear that he should have been CM. The Congress wanted its pound of flesh for allowing a junior partner to become CM. Outgoing Congress CM Siddaramaiah felt he had been diddled out of his job and had no interest in ensuring HDK stayed in power. Hence Rahul Gandhi’s tweet: “From its first day, the Congress-JDS alliance in Karnataka was a target for vested interests, both within and outside, who saw the alliance as a threat and an obstacle in their path to power…” DK Shivakumar (who was one of the few Congress leaders to speak in English during the trust vote, many feel, because he wanted 10 Janpath to hear his speech) quoted Voltaire:  “May God defend me from my friends; I can defend myself from my enemies.”

Congress MLA from Basavakalyan, B Narayana Rao said while speaking in the trust vote: “How can you expect to reap mangoes when you sow neem seeds? With folded hands I beseech the sitting Chief Minister, the past Chief Minister and the one who may occupy the chair tomorrow: please surround yourself with good people. You give tickets to real estate agents, builders and excise contractors and expect them to stay loyal to a political ideal?”

When voting day came around, 20 MLAs skipped voting. 14 were from the Congress, three from JDS, one from BSP and two independents

Now there are three problems. 

The first is the Speaker. The Speaker may have disqualified three but he is the one who will have to decide whether to accept the resignation of the “rebel” MLAs. He also has to consider the plea of Siddaramaiah and the Congress that those who did not obey the party whip should be disqualified. If the Speaker accepts the resignations, by-elections will be ordered and the BJP will likely get majority. But what if the Speaker disqualifies the errant MLAs instead of accepting their resignations? There is hardly any doubt that they will then knock on the doors of the Supreme Court. And so it will go on…

The second is the state of mind of the “rebels”. Uncertain about their future and in the absence of any guarantees whether they will become ministers or not, they are under a lot of pressure. Some could decide to return to their parent party. What happens in that eventuality? Siddaramaiah has declared that on no account will they be allowed to return. But things can change.

The third is the dilemma before the BJP itself. The party knows that if the Speaker accepts the resignation of the MLAs and by elections are ordered, the rebel MLAs will demand they be given the BJP nominations. But they were instrumental in defeating the BJP. Whose claim will the party entertain? Its own defeated MLAs’? Or the defectors’? 

That’s not the only issue. BJP’s internal stability is in doubt. One of the biggest detractors of Yediyurappa, BL Santhosh, has been shifted to the party’s central unit. Those who can’t get on with Yediyurappa — and they are in significant numbers — now have a court of appeal in Delhi. There is nothing a chief minister dreads more than this.

Beset with all these problems, one way out for the central party is to acknowledge the reality — that it is a classic hung house, the constitutional machinery has broken down and central rule must be imposed with fresh elections. But that is not an option because the MLAs will have a hysterical hissy fit. Another election within a year of being elected? 

That’s why whatever might happen in Karnataka, one thing is certain: no matter who heads the government, it will be in a state of permanent flux and uncertainty.