Yogi and Kejriwal could enter national politics

Kejriwal has successfully used the media to equate political change with himself, leaving other parties wondering how a small party like AAP gathered finances needed to contest Punjab elections.

A potential electoral defeat of the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh and a possible win for the Aam Adami Party (AAP) in Punjab could throw up potential challengers to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In UP, the BJP has redoubled its efforts after perceived setbacks in the initial phases of polling. Prime Minister Modi is now asking pandemic recipients of free food schemes to remember that Modi ka namak khaya hai, and pay back now.  A BJP legislator was last seen on a campaign stage contritely performing sit-ups asking voters’ forgiveness for neglecting them in the last five years.

If the BJP loses UP, the blame will entirely be placed on Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. Yet it will not end Adityanath’s challenge to Prime Minister Modi. It is no secret that in the run-up to the UP polls, BJP’s central leadership tried to curb Adityanath’s role in order to downplay the costs of his misgovernance. Similar circumstances had led to leadership changes in other states, but in UP the push back from Adityanath was so strong that the party was forced to rally behind him. The party also insisted that Adityanath not change his constituency from Gorakhpur to Ayodhya as that might have signalled political weakness.

Adityanath is likely to see a defeat as a result of anti-incumbency against Prime Minister Modi and the party’s machinations against him. He is ambitious, with age on his side and he does not forgive easily. Even in defeat, he could emerge as the focal point of bottled-up dissent against the Modi-Amit Shah duo within the party. If the Nagpur mandarins of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the mother organisation of the BJP, feel that Modi-magic has indeed waned then he could become their next Hindutva mascot.

He is ideally qualified for it – youthful, a bachelor with no dynasty to promote, personally honest and with demonstrated aggressiveness against the minorities. That he is saffron-clad, not associated with an obsessive vanity about his appearance is an added advantage. What’s more, he has led a state government for five years and gained a reputation for his tough stand on law and order. His questionable and often patently illegal methods of governance, like imposing fines for destruction of public property by protestors and bulldozing properties of criminals, go down well with right-wing voters, always in search of a ‘strong’ leader.

If AAP wins Punjab, then Arvind Kejriwal too, would emerge as another challenger to Prime Minister Modi. Once again, he is youthful, has mastered the tricks of the electoral trade and can successfully manipulate the poor and the middle classes with his populism offering ‘communalism with freebies’, and his promises to make family budgets viable with government subsidies of free water and electricity. In Punjab, he has included a token monthly income for housewives. He has successfully used the media to equate political change with himself, leaving the BJP and other political parties scratching their heads to figure out how a small party like the AAP gathered the financial resources needed to contest the Punjab elections.

The greatest fear of the BJP is that a win by Kejriwal in Punjab, will increase his party’s resources and facilitate AAP to spread its wings nationally. Kejriwal’s next target will be Gujarat which is due for legislative assembly elections in December 2022. It is a state where the BJP is likely to face massive anti-incumbency of three terms and the Congress party is weak. Already, in February 2021, AAP made its debut in the Surat municipal corporation elections, winning 27 seats to become the leading Opposition party in a 120-member house, with the Congress and other Opposition parties notching a zero. If AAP wins Gujarat in December this year, then the 2023 elections in several other states could be Arvind Kejriwal’s to win or at least emerge as a major national contender.

Well aware of AAP’s challenge in ‘Fortress Gujarat’, Prime Minister Modi and the BJP have therefore gone out of their way to ensure that AAP does not get a clear mandate in Punjab. Along with ousted Chief Minister Amarinder Singh they have appealed to voters to elect a “national party”, stoking fears that the AAP was in cahoots with separatist forces in a strategically important border state.

Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah also met various Dera chiefs, even inviting some to the prime minister’s residence in well-publicised meetings. They have considerable following amongst Dalits in Punjab. One of them is believed to have signalled to his supporters to vote for “Takadi ya Kamal” (either for “Weighing balance”, the symbol of Shiromani Akali Dal or “Lotus”, the symbol of BJP). This was perhaps directed at those Dera followers who were unhappy with the Congress for filing cases of sacrilege against their leaders and were likely to vote for AAP. And was it mere coincidence that the head of Dera Sacha Sauda, Gurmeet Ram Rahim, serving long prison terms for rape and murder was suddenly released on parole for 21 days on the eve of Punjab polling?

There is also speculation that the urban Hindutva votes were also transferred to the Congress at the last minute to check AAP and divide the anti-incumbency vote across several parties, weakening AAP’s platform of change. This is probably why many political pundits have predicted a hung assembly for Punjab with AAP likely to emerge as the single largest party. If that happens, Punjab might come under President’s Rule giving time to the BJP to do what it is adept at – horse-trading and splitting parties.

Thus, the eclipse of BJP in UP and the rise of AAP in Punjab – could lead to the emergence of two emboldened national players – Yogi Adityanath and Arvind Kejriwal; both challengers to the Modi dispensation – one from within the BJP and the other from outside. It will also impact the future of Indian politics if the only strong challengers to Prime Minister Modi come from within the same political spectrum.