2-6% vote difference determines govt in MP: study

Barring two elections, the difference in votes polled by the Congress and BJP in Madhya Pradesh has traditionally been between just 2 to 6 per cent.

An analysis of results of the last seven Assembly elections, as per official data, shows that the difference between votes polled by the two rival parties has generally been not more than six per cent.

In the 1977 elections held in the aftermath of the Emergency, the Janata Party had swept to power but in the 1980 elections, Congress returned to office with 47.51 per cent of votes against 30.34 of the BJP.

In the 1985 elections also, the Congress got 48.52 per cent votes while the BJP had to be content with only 32.47 per cent votes.

The difference in poll percentage between the two parties was 17 and 16 respectively in these two elections, but it was never more than six per cent in the other elections.

In the 1990 Assembly elections, the BJP got 39.12% votes while Congress was rooted out of power as it got 33.49 per cent votes.

In the 1993 Assembly elections, held a year after the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Congress returned to power by getting two per cent more votes than the BJP. The Congress polled 40.79 per cent votes, the BJP 38.82 per cent votes and the others received 20.39 per cent votes.

A similar situation was repeated in 1998 when the Congress got 1.25 per cent votes more than the BJP. In these polls, the Congress received 40.79 per cent votes, the BJP bagged 38.82 and others got 20.39 per cent votes.

The tables were turned in 2003 when the BJP got 42.50 per cent of the votes and the Congress managed 37.70 per cent votes while others got 19.80 per cent votes.

In the 2008 polls, the BJP's vote percentage came down to 37.79 while that of the Congress was 32.40 and others got 29.90 per cent.