AAP surveys predict clean sweep in Delhi

The party has got three surveys done so far by a private agency called Sisro Associates

Citing findings of three surveys, the Aam Aadmi Party has claimed that it was all set to sweep the Delhi Assembly elections scheduled for November.

AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and associate Yogendra Yadav an election analyst himself, today claimed that the findings of the survey indicated a wave in favour of the party.

The party has got three surveys done so far, the first in February, followed by August and September, conducted by a private agency called Sisro Associates with technical assistance from Yadav.

The third one which has a large sample of 35,000 people is still being undertaken in all constituencies. Findings from 22 constituencies of roughly 10,000 people show that the vote share of AAP is 32 per cent, while that of Congress  24 per cent followed by BJP  with 23 per cent.

This is a huge jump for AAP from 27 per cent vote share it got in a survey done in August of 3500 people. The same survey showed BJP get a vote share of 31 per cent and Congress of 26 per cent.

In February AAP was getting only a vote share of 14 per cent and was at the bottom of the heap. Congress and BJP were both getting 35 per cent each.

By August the two major parties have slid down while AAP has increased its share, Yadav said. He said that any party which gets a six per cent lead over the second party, is sure to get an absolute majority.

The AAP has put all the raw data of the surveys in the public domain for the sake of transparency. No one would believe when we say that a new party like AAP is sweeping elections. So we thought the best thing to do was to release the entire survey data including interviews with each unit, Yogendra Yadav said.

A large chunk of 41 per cent of those surveyed both in August and in the ongoing September survey have  opted for Arvind Kejriwal for the post of Chief Minister against Vijay Goel of BJP and Sheila Dikshit of Congress.

While Vijay Goel got 14 per cent support in August, this went up to 20 per cent in September.

In the case of Sheila Dikshit, the support has gone up from 20 per cent to 25 per cent in September.

While in both months, Kejriwal got a steady support of 41 per cent.Asked about the New Delhi constituency from which Kejriwal is to contest against Sheila Dikshit, the AAP leaders said that the survey showed the same trend there too.

However the AAP leaders admitted that there was a gap between the vote share that AAP was seen to be getting at 32 per cent and the per cent of people who wanted AAP leader as chief minister or AAP Government, which stood at 41 per cent.

The wish to see Kejriwal as chief minister is the sympathy enjoyed by AAP by people who wish to give it a chance, Yadav said. Our challenge is to convert this support to votes so that the vote share also goes up to the same level, he said.

Commenting on the findings, Kejriwal said that the underlying sentiment behind the sympathy for AAP is the general disgust among the masses with the political class. For the first time people feel there is an alternative, he said.

Yadav said that this kind of reception for a total new comer party has happened in the past in the case of the Asom Gana Parishad, the Telugu Desam Party.

If it actually happens as indicated by the survey it would be the beginning of changing the very face of politics, Prashant Bhushan AAP leader and lawyer said.

In the case of New Delhi constituency, Kejriwal said that of the 30000 families there, while6000 were the elite who could not be accessed, 12000 of the 23600 accessed so far have given donations to AAP indicating that their votes are assured.

Sheila Dikshit won the seat in the last elections only by 35000 votes, he pointed out. More than that number are already assured, he said.

Kejriwal ruled out any coalition partnership if there was a hung Assembly in Delhi saying that would be a huge betrayal of the trust of the people.