AFSPA queers political pitch in N-E as Manipur Assembly elections loom

Recent events in the Northeast are going to have a profound effect on the electoral outcome in Manipur. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - which ended the 15-year rule of the Congress and assumed power after the 2017 elections following defections from the Congress and support of the National People’s Party (NPP) - is expected to summon the Cabinet to pass a resolution any day now, demanding the repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA).

In Manipur, during the rule of the Congress-led government in 2004, the AFSPA was lifted from seven Assembly constituencies in the state. On December 1, 2019, the Manipur government extended the 'Disturbed Area' status in the entire state, with the exception of Imphal Municipal areas, for another year.

Promulgation of the 'Disturbed Area' status creates the ground for the enforcement of the Act. In February this year, the BJP government, led by N Biren Singh, said the chief minister (CM) would lobby the central government to remove this almost permanent threat to civil liberties as the law and order situation in Manipur "was peaceful and well under control".

Now, he is under pressure to make good his promise after the December 4 incident in Nagaland’s Mon, where 14 people were killed. Army personnel mistook coalmine workers returning home in a van for insurgents belonging to the Yung Aung faction of the banned outfit National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) and opened fire, killing six people. Eight others, including an Army man, were killed in subsequent clashes between the forces and villagers. The Army has since conceded it was a mistake, but all the northeastern states are up in arms.

The Act and demand for its removal have become a big election issue in poll-bound Manipur. The Congress has already said that if it comes back to power in 2022, the first meeting of the Cabinet will decide on the immediate and complete removal of AFSPA from the entire state of Manipur. It is another matter that the Congress’s fortunes in the hill state are on a downward trajectory. However, what makes things politically perilous for the BJP is that it's most important electoral ally, the NPP, headed by Conrad Sangma, CM of neighbouring Meghalaya, has also said it will campaign across the state for the end of AFSPA.

Naturally, the Union home ministry and the central BJP have not commented on AFSPA, even as the party has stepped up campaigning in the state. Party chief J P Nadda has already visited Manipur thrice since October, addressing many rallies, while Home Minister Amit Shah visited the state once.

What the BJP must find especially galling is that AFSPA has eclipsed all the other achievements of the Biren Singh government. Statistics from the Good Governance Index, evolved by the Department of Personnel and Training as a way to compile the development data from states and create rankings on a variety of indices to foster competition among states on good governance, reveal that under several heads, Manipur has improved its 2019 ranking in 2020-21. The compound annual growth rate for agriculture and allied sectors in the state has improved from 0.3 (2019) to 4.5 (2020-21).

Horticulture production is showing a declining trend all over the region - except in Manipur. The availability of doctors in primary health care centres shows a huge jump in the state (from 81.5 in 2019 to 182.9 in 2020-21). And Manipur has shown among the highest growth among all the northeastern states in own tax revenues to total revenues, from 5.5 in 2019 to 10.88 in 2020-21.

But the BJP’s growth and development in Manipur have been largely at the expense of the Congress. Although the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats after the 2017 elections, the BJP formed the government with support from a group of "friendly" parties, including the NPP. Exits from the Congress continued. The most notable was state party chief Govindas Konthoujam, former minister and six-time Congress MLA from Bishnupur, who crossed the floor in August and joined the BJP.

However, relations between the BJP and its ally NPP have not been cordial either. Of the four NPP ministers in the government, two were dropped earlier this year. Sangma, who is both ambitious and young, is seen as an important upcoming leader in the Northeast. His party is an important member of the North-East Democratic Alliance, a non-Congress political platform floated by the BJP after winning the Assam elections in 2016. His party has already announced it will contest 40 seats out of 60 from Manipur in the upcoming Assembly elections. This could make him an important kingmaker if the BJP and the Congress are tied.

The Manipur election outcome will show if the BJP has really put down firm roots in the state. It will also test the permanence of regional outfits like the NPP.