After Gorakhpur and Phulpur wins, joint Opposition now sets eyes on Kairana

A much stronger anti-saffron alliance is using everything from Jat-Muslim unity, to cane dues, to faulty EVMs, to police excesses in order to wrest the seat from BJP

Polling in Kairana in Uttar Pradesh is taking place today amid allegations by the Opposition that the Election Commission installed faulty electronic voting machines, or EVMs, and that the local police lathi-charged voters in some polling booths.

Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has said hundreds of EVMs have malfunctioned in polling booths where its support base dominates, and that the police have indulged in lathi-charges to dissuade voters from exercising their franchise. Election Commission officials have attributed EVM malfunctioning to the heat. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has said the Opposition is making irresponsible statements as it is losing the Kairana election. 

Kairana is one of the four Lok Sabha by-elections taking place today. Other three are Palghar and Bhandara-Gondiya in Maharashtra and Nagaland. Kairana, Palghar and Bhandara-Gondiya were won by the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014.

Of these, Kairana has much symbolic value. As evident from events of the last couple of days, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to win Kairana. The BJP lost Phulpur and Gorakhpur by-elections earlier this year, which sent the impression across the country that the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra and Amit Shah was beatable.

The defeats didn’t just puncture holes in the cloak of invincibility that the BJP leadership has built around itself, it was also a shot in the arm for Opposition unity. It told the Opposition parties that they could defeat the BJP if they were to come together. The SP and Bahujan Samaj Party had come together to defeat the BJP in Gorakhpur and Phulpur. The Opposition has now come together to put up a united fight in Kairana.

The Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has fielded Tabassum Hasan, while BJP’s candidate is Mriganka Singh. She is the daughter of BJP’s Hukum Singh, who had won on the Kairana seat in 2014, but passed away in February.

Hasan was earlier with the SP. The SP, BSP, Congress, Peace Party and Left parties are supporting Hasan. RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary has campaigned extensively in Kairana. His effort is to recreate the social composition of Jat and Muslim unity in western UP that had made his grandfather Chaudhary Charan Singh one of the tallest leaders of northern India in the 1960s, 70s and 80s.

The BJP had worked hard to get a win. Prime Minister Modi held a public rally in the neighbouring Baghpat on Sunday. It is rare for a prime minister to campaign for by-polls. The rally was held after the end of election campaigning and violated the model code of conduct in its spirit. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has also campaigned extensively in Kairana, as has his Deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya.

The biggest issue in Kairana is farmers not getting their sugarcane dues. The RLD has made that into its main plank. Jayant Chaudhary has tried to counter BJP’s efforts at religious polarization by asking farmers whether the they wanted “Ganna or Jinnah”.

In his speech on Sunday, the PM promised better prices to sugarcane farmers. The PM also tried to reach out to non-Yadav Other Backward Classes, or OBCs, by indicating that there could be reservation within reservation for these communities. The region, however, was shaken by the news of a farmer dying. He was protesting to get his sugarcane dues.

The BJP had won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in western Uttar Pradesh in the aftermath of the 2013 communal riots in Saharanpur. It had split the RLD's Jat-Muslim combination. A Jat-Muslim consolidation in Kairana, with support from BSP’s Dalit support base, could potentially wipe out the BJP in western UP. The Gorakhpur and Phulpur wins have already shown that the BJP could similarly be wiped out in eastern UP.

The 73 seats that the BJP had won in UP in 2014 had helped it cross the majority mark of 272. But the opposition alliance in UP could mean the BJP might be staring at a massive defeat in UP in 2019.

It is important for the BJP to win Kairana for it to project that it can win despite the opposition parties coming together on a single platform. But a loss would further dent its invincibility cloak. It will also tell the country that in UP, the most populous state, people are upset with the BJP’s year-long rule in Lucknow. It will send the message that not just key castes of Dalits and OBCs, but also farmers as a class are angry with the BJP.

A BJP defeat in Kairana will puncture, to some extent, the BJP’s efforts of crafting the 2019 Lok Sabha battle as one between the honest dedicated leadership provided by Modi versus a congregation of corrupt dynasts. 
 

It would send the message that the issue in 2019, at least in UP, would not be the TINA (there is no alternative) factor in favour of Modi, but issues of farmers getting a good price for their produce, atrocities on Dalits, and the BJP's inability to share power with Dalits and OBCs.

The BJP has lost a series of by-elections. On Saturday, BJP chief Shah betrayed his nervousness about the result in Kairana. He said results of by-polls should not be seen to be an indicator of the mood of the people for 2019 Lok Sabha polls, as factors determining voter behaviour would be different then.

According to the Lok Sabha website, the BJP currently has 274 members. However, its two MPs from Karnataka – B S Yeddyurappa and B Sreeramulu – have quit after being elected to the Karnataka assembly. The BJP’s actual number is 272, excluding Speaker Sumitra Mahajan.

Losses in the three Lok Sabha by-polls of today would mean BJP having lost successive Lok Sabha by-elections in the last two years, and very near to losing its majority status.