After Lalu, who?

Former CM, Bihar was today convicted in a fodder scam case by special CBI court in Ranchi

The conviction of former chief minister of Bihar Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 17 year old Fodder scam case, may have plunged his party the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) into a crisis, nonetheless it appears to have cleared the political decks in Bihar. The Congress led UPA was measured in its response treating it as a “judicial matter” but Opposition BJP welcomed the verdict with much gusto. It is almost a given, in the backdrop of this verdict, Congress if it does stitch up an alliance in Bihar in the run up to 2014 will join forces with the JD(U) and not with the “tainted” RJD. The JD(U) had recently split up with long time ally BJP.

 

Party Vice President Rahul Gandhi had on Friday last scuttled the ordinance that would have helped convicted 'netas' like Lalu Yadav from saving their seat.  

In New Delhi, Congress party communication department chief Ajay Maken told reporters today, "It's too early to say what impact it will have on alliance in Bihar and Jharkhand. We cannot say anything on what will happen about alliance." 

Meanwhile senior Congress leader Digvijay Singh however expressed "sadness" at "old partner" Lalu's conviction. Singh said, "I am sure he will be able to prove his innocence in the higher court."Adding, "He has been a trusted and an old partner of the Congress Party". The offcial party response was however more guarded.
 

However analysts don’t seem to have any hesitation in saying that it looks all set for a clear fight between the ruling Janta Dal (United) and the BJP. Patna based sociologist cum economist Saibal Gupta said, “It can be said that the four corner contest has now become clearly bipolar between the JD(U) and the BJP, with the Congress likely to align with the former.” As for the Muslim vote, he says, that could now move towards Nitish Kumar as Lalu Yadav’s party could be in the doldrums. 

However he adds that it remains to be seen who will take up the mantle of the party.  

 

The front runners are from his own family, his wife Rabri Devi and son Tejashwi Yadav. This will not be the first time, when Mrs. Yadav would have to get into the shoes of his husband. In 1997, when Lalu had to offer his resignation, he appointed Rabri as Bihar Chief Minister. Many accused him of ruling the state through a "remote control". Even, Rabri Devi accepted that for the first few days, she could not understand anything and spent hours crying in the office. However, this only steeled his grip over the RJD. Rabri Devi remained as the Chief Minister till 2005, when JD(U)-BJP combine usurped the RJD rule. However, the clouds of crisis are looming large over the RJD, she has emerged as the most favoured candidate to assume Lalu's role.

 

"We are certain that Laluji will get bail from High Court in no time," senior RJD leader and MP Ram Kripal Yadav told Business Standard, "He is our leader and the party president post is no constitutional position. Therefore, he does not need to resign. However, in the meantime Rabriji will guide us. She has done it earlier and she will do it again." However, the changed political scenario in Bihar and her lack of political acumen made her obsolete in the state's political arena.

 

Meanwhile, a certain section in the party sees a bigger role for Tejashwi Yadav, the younger son of Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi, in near future. Tejaswi, 24 years old, grew up away from his family. He was bundled off to national capital to study at Delhi Public School, RK Puram, when he was just 8 years old. He found brief moments limelight on the cricket pitch, but success eluded him. Later he donned the political whites and returned to campaign for his mother in the 2010 assembly election. As father's favourite son, he climbed the political ladder comfortably. But his lack of experience and rising ambitions of senior party leaders will only make his political journey difficult. Apart from that, the biggest challenger to his authority will be none other than his own brother, Tej Pratap. 

 

There are many other leaders, who are waiting for a long overdue promotion. The promotion will take one of them to helms of the affair. The very small group within the party is also considering a third alternative. A core group of 5 senior leaders will assume the leadership of the RJD, while Lalu is away. However, there are not many takers of this idea with the party. Even, a few days ago, Lalu brushed aside this idea. 

 

According to the party members, the time will be a crucial factor in this crisis within the party. How much time Lalu have to spend behind the bars, will shape the future of the party. As one senior leader of the RJD stated, "There is a long festive season ahead, which certainly not very festive for us. Festivals means holidays and holidays means no work in the courts. It will only make road tougher for us as election season is just around the corner."